February 26, 2009

Soy acreage across the upper Southeast is likely to have a modest increase in the 2009 season as farmers continue to try and figure out the fine balance between production costs and expected commodity prices for the upcoming growing season.

 

In North Carolina, the largest soy producing state in the Southeast, growers battled drought conditions much of last year, but still harvested a record crop.

 

North Carolina Soybean Growers Association executive director Charles Hall said according to UDSA NASS statistics, the 2008 North Carolina soy crop was the highest production on record, at more than 55 million bushels and surpassed the old mark of 52.5 million bushels achieved in 1982.

 

Hall said the 2008 crop was also a benchmark year for production dollar-wise, because the value of soy production was seen exceeding US$500 million.

 

He added that they averaged 33 bushels to the acre -- near the record state average yield of 34 bushels per acre set in 2004.

 

He also said that quality-wise, both protein and oil content were 0.8 percent better than the national average in 2008.

 

He said that the odds of back-to-back weather patterns like in 2007 and 2008 were very small, and that it would be even less likely for 2009 to look like 2007, when they only yielded 22 bushels per acre.

 

In 2008, North Carolina produced 1.66 million acres of soy and production was up 75 percent from 2007.

 

Tight global soy stocks which are expected down 22 percent this year, should encourage US exports through next fall and winter, in addition with a continued weak dollar also supports soy exports.

 

Drought conditions in Argentina and Uruguay in particular, and throughout the Southern Hemisphere in general, indicate a slightly smaller soy crop than originally forecast.

 

In Argentina, for example, late January forecasts called for a two percent drop in harvest over fall predictions.

 

With carryover down to 4 to 5 million tonnes there is little speculation that soy prices will drop - at least not for the 2009 crop. In fact, with carry-over down, there is little cushion against a US production shortfall or foreign supply shocks that could push prices higher.

 

Soy growers across the Southeast will have some good varieties to work with in 2009.

 

With planting decisions being made later in 2009 than in any recent planting year, the flexibility of having good early-, mid- and late-season beans is a big plus for growers across the region.