Philippines braces for a prolonged dry spell

 

 

 

According to the Philippine Atmospheric Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (Pagasa), the country's weather bureau, this abnormal weather pattern began in December 2009, shortly after devastating typhoons wrought havoc in the country. Projected to end by June this year, the bureau also said this year's El Niño will be moderate compared to the 1997-98 occurrences when the phenomenon was at its extreme.

Pagasa said the worst of El Niño will be felt by March. But to date, crop damages have reached PHP2.84 billion (US$61 million), more than double from the previous week's estimate. According to the Department of Agriculture, this amount is already alarming considering the figures were only in February. If the current dry spell goes beyond the expected phase, the DA fears that this year's El Niño could be more severe than initially predicted.

 

El Niño's wrath

According to weather experts, El Niño is caused by the warming of the Pacific Ocean which brings weather abnormalities around the world –warming in South America, torrential rains in North America and drought in Southeast Asia and Australia. This freak weather condition brought severe droughts to the Philippines in the past: in 1982-83 wherein damages reached more than PHP700 million (US$15.19 million) and devastated 450,000 hectares of land; 1992-93 when agricultural sector suffered losses of PHP4.1 billion (US$88.98 million) and damaging 478,000 tonnes of corn; and in 1997-98 wherein dry spell lasted more than one year (started June 1997 and ended September 1998) and resulted to PHP8.46 billion (US$183.34 million) of crop casualties damages - the biggest by far. At that time, the phenomenon struck when the country was enjoying a continuous four-year growth, hence, taking adverse tolls on the economy.

Earlier, the Department of Agriculture had estimated that a "mild" dry spell would exact losses for the whole year, amounting to: 264,940 tonnes of rice worth PHP4 billion (US$86.65 million); 174,224 tonnes of corn worth PHP2.26 billion (US$48.96 million) and 3.17 million tonnes of various high-value commercial crops worth PHP583 million (US$12.63 million). On the other hand, a severe dry spell will cause losses of 816,372 tonnes of rice worth PHP2.24 billion (US$262.21 million), 440,429 tonnes of corn worth PHP5.2 billion (US$112.76 million) and 3.08 million tonnes of high value crops worth PHP583 million (US$9.60 million).

For this reason, the DA is projecting a 10% drop in crop production in the first half of 2010. According to the Bureau of Agricultural Statistics, crops account for 53.89% of total agricultural production, which also includes livestock, poultry and fisheries. Last year, BAS reported that the country produced PHP80 billion (US$519.93 million) worth of various crops in the first half of last year, including PHP24 billion worth of 7.37 million tonnes of rice and PHP10 billion (US$216.63 million) worth 3.2 million tonnes of corn.

Apart from crop losses, livestock and poultry are also expected to incur at least PHP1 billion (US$21.66 million) in losses with the biggest blow on small farmers. This will, in retrospect, affect the country's pork and chicken supply as nearly three-quarters of the country's swine and poultry production come from small suppliers. Moreover, prices are also expected to shoot up due to scant supplies. Pork prices, currently pegged at PHP160 (US$3.46) to PHP170 (US$3.68) per kilo may jack up to PHP200 (US$4.33) per kilo, triggering fears among market vendors that sales would drastically go down.

The Philippine Veterinary Medical Association (PVMA) has appealed to the government to immediately address the situation and resolve ways to save crop production. PVMA president Dr. Manuel Carlos said a shortage of corn and other crops used in feed production would result to declining meat supply which could result to massive importation. Moreover, Carlos stated the weather disturbance may cause health problems to swine and poultry as lack of water may cause stress and increase the animals' susceptibility to viral diseases. He added that having adequate, clean water may prevent the accumulation of wastes to prevent the multiplication of microorganisms and parasites. Putting wet absorbent materials on floor pens may mitigate the adverse effects of intense heat to poultry farms and lessen stress on pregnant sows. But without enough water, Carlos said livestock and poultry might be facing a tremendous production problem.

Carlos' fears may bound to happen. In a latest report by Pagasa, the drop in the water levels of Luzon dams may surpass the 1997-98 drought if it doesn't rain soon. According to Susan Espinueva, officer in charge of Pagasa's Hydrometeorological Division, dams in Luzon could reach critical levels by March and April, hence, affecting water supply for irrigation and power generation. In 1998, Espinueva said average water level of Magat was 160.5 metres as opposed to its normal level of 185.51 metres. As of February 20, the water level was 161.7 metres. Espinueva said the average decrease is 0.5 metres a day and if this continues, she worries that the condition may equal the 1998 average in just a couple of days and the severity of the condition might get worse.

To alleviate the scorching heat, authorities have resorted to cloud-seeding or the attempt to create precipitation by spreading or spraying dry ice (silver iodide aerosols) on clouds. This system has already been moderately successful as "localised rain showers" have increased water levels in major dams such as La Mesa and San Roque. However, experts believe this would not be not enough as more farms, due to lack of irrigation and water pumps, continue to parch dry.

The fury of El Niño is already gradually felt in Visayas and Mindanao. The two regions are currently suffering from power outages, resulting to several brownouts daily, causing major disruptions to numerous industries. Due to lower water levels of reservoirs, hydropower facilities are already running out of capacity with Mindanao having a deficit of 389 megawatts and Visayas, 31 megawatts. Though Luzon does not have occasional brownouts, the area is facing possible power rate hikes due to massive use of electricity, which is usually the trend during the summer but with prolonged drought, the expected increase may be twice than the usual.

 

Pending more data on the severity of the El Niño, the government is reviewing its growth targets this year. Analyst Luz Lorenzo said agriculture, which accounted for 19.5% of gross domestic product in 1998, will now only account 18.1% of total economic output. She added that the agricultural workforce - accounting 40% of the country's total labour force - will be among the hardest hit, resulting to a dramatic rise of poverty levels and compromised incomes as production slows down. On the other hand, the National Economic Development Authority stressed that harvest delays would constrain food supply which might spark widespread crisis on food. Overall, the country's economic growth just stands at 2.6% to 3.6% for 2010. 

However, the analysts believe overall economy may recover as the 1997-98 El Niño case struck alongside the Asian Financial Crisis while this time, the country is gradually recovering from the global financial meltdown.

While the overall impact remains to be seen, this year's El Niño should serve as a springboard for both the government to ramp up efforts particularly the irrigation system which has been a huge agricultural problem for ages. Further, water conservation should be a way of life and not just a practice during summer months as it can save lives to people especially during this period when climate change is already exacting its toll.