February 25, 2008
US soy exports expected to be down 9.5 percent even as production rises
US soy exports for 2008-09 are projected to fall 9.5 percent from 2007-2008 even though production is expected to be up 14.3 percent.
Ending stocks are expected to rise 5.6 percent.
US soy production is seen at 2.950 billion bushels, according to the USDA, which released its grains and oilseeds outlook Friday at its annual Agricultural Outlook Forum. This is compared to 2.585 billion bushels in 2007-08.
Soy crush would be around 1.86 billion bushels while exports are seen at 910 million bushels.
Exports were seen at 905 million bushels, and ending stocks were estimated at 219 million bushels. The baseline projections were compiled in November 2007.
|
Corn |
Soy |
Wheat | ||
|
2008-09 |
Planted area (million acres) |
90 |
71 |
64 |
|
2007-08 |
Planted area (million acres) |
93.6 |
63.6 |
60.4 |
|
Percentage change |
-3.8 |
11.6 |
6 | |
|
2008-09 |
Production (billion bushels) |
12.81 |
2.95 |
2.33 |
|
2007-08 |
Production (billion bushels) |
13 |
2.58 |
2.07 |
|
Percentage change |
-1.5 |
14.3 |
12.6 | |
|
2008-09 |
yield (bushels/acre) |
154.9 |
42.1 |
42.8 |
|
2007-08 |
yield (bushels/acre) |
151.1 |
41.2 |
40.5 |
|
Percentage change |
2.5 |
2.2 |
5.7 | |
|
2008-09 |
Ending stock (million bushels) |
1243 |
169 |
538 |
|
2007-08 |
Ending stock (million bushels) |
1438 |
160 |
272 |
|
Percentage change |
-13.6 |
5.6 |
97.8 | |
|
2008-09 |
Exports (million bushels) |
2150 |
905 |
950 |
|
2007-08 |
Exports (million bushels) |
2450 |
1005 |
1200 |
|
|
Percentage change |
-12.2 |
-9.5 |
-20.8 |
