February 24, 2012

USDA predicts US beef exports value and volume increase

US 2012 beef exports is expected to see a rise in value and volume compared with 2011, according to USDA's quarterly Agricultural Trade Outlook report.

The agency projects overall exports for fiscal 2012 at US$131 billion, down US$1 billion from the November forecast and US$6.4 billion below fiscal 2011.

The agency raised its forecast for total 2012 livestock, poultry, and dairy exports by US$1.9 billion from 2011 to a record US$29.2 billion. Compared with the November forecast, the forecast is up US$1.3 billion, with gains in all categories, but most significantly for dairy, poultry, and cattle.

The report projects beef and veal exports for fiscal year 2012 to reach a value of US$4.9 billion, compared with US$4.5 billion for 2011. The report projects beef and veal volume at to reach 900,000 tonnes compared with 820,000 during 2011.

The value of beef and pork variety meat exports is forecast to reach US$1.3 billion during fiscal year 2012 compared with US$1.2 billion during 2011. On the import side, the report projects slightly higher US beef imports for 2012, as exports from Australia and New Zealand are expected to increase this year.

The report notes, however, that an expected increase in producers retaining cattle for breeding in those countries will limit their export volume somewhat. Likewise, an expected move toward herd expansion in Canada will somewhat limit that country's exports of live cattle. The agency forecasts US beef imports valued at US$3.3 billion for fiscal 2012, compared with US$3 billion during 2011.

USDA projects an overall agricultural trade balance for 2012 at a surplus of US$24.5 billion, down from US$43 billion for 2011.