Brazil soy exports to surge in February

Brazil's soy exports are likely to rise strongly in February as the large 2010 harvest is marketed, Hamburg-based oilseeds analysts Oil World forecast on Tuesday (Feb 23).

Brazil may export 2.2-2.6 million tonnes of soy in February, up from only 100,000 tonnes in January and 700,000 tonnes in February 2009, it estimates. Early 2010 soy crop, now underway, is forecast by Oil World at 64-65 million tonnes, up from 57.4 million tonnes in 2009.

But there is concern that the surge in soy exports could create transport problems in Brazil, while the impact of the Asian Rust crop disease on this year's crop is still a concern, it said.

Meanwhile, Argentina's advanced sales of the 2010 soy crop, set to enter the export market in late March or early April, are believed to be considerably lower than in past years.

Argentine farmers were hesitant because of the country's growing economic problems and were dissatisfied with economic policy, Oil World said. There is general agreement that South America's 2010 soy crop will rise by about 30 million tonnes on 2009, it said.

But dry weather means Oil World cut its forecast of Paraguay's soy crop to 6.6 million tonnes from its previous estimate of 7.0 million tonnes, still up from 3.0 million tonnes last year.