February 23, 2012

 

 

Russian industry and government officials said on Wednesday (Feb 22) that the country will maintain its wheat and grain export volumes and may increase its grain output in 2012/13.

 

The country expects to keep its wheat exports at around 22 million tonnes in the year to June 2013 with minimal damage to the winter crop so far from adverse weather, lobby group the Russian Grain Union said on Wednesday.

 

Russia has exported 18 million tonnes of wheat this year and expects to sell another four million before the year ends in June.

 

"About 1-1.5 million hectares have been damaged due to winter cold, out of a total 16 million hectares planted with grain crops," Arkadiy Zlochevsky, president of the Russian Grain Union, told reporters at a grains conference in Singapore.

 

"The damage is less than usual so there will not be much impact on exports," he said, speaking through a translator.

 

The market is closely watching crop progress in the Black Sea region, adverse weather in some parts of which has raised expectations of a cap on exports. Zlochevsky pegged wheat exports in the year to June 2012 at 22 million tonnes and overall grain shipments at 25 million. Overall grain exports next year are seen at 25 million tonnes if the weather is good.

 

Russia helped drive up world wheat prices around the beginning of February, first because of speculation about a duty that would limit exports and then because of concerns that hard frost could damage Black Sea crops.

 

Russia's 2012/13 grain output may exceed this year's figure of 93.9 million tonnes, boosted by higher yields and greater area under cultivation, an official of the country's Agriculture ministry (AgMin) said on the same conference in Singapore. He believes Russia is unlikely to impose taxes on grain exports, thanks to its ample supplies.

 

"To my way of thinking, and in most likelihood, taxes will not be introduced," Artem Krestyaninov, a deputy director at the Russian Agriculture ministry, told reporters, speaking also through a translator.

 

"In April, the Russian Federation will discuss the issue again," Krestyaninov added.

 

Russian grain export in 2011/12 may exceed 27 million tonnes, Krestyaninov believes.

 

"Presently our stocks ratio is sufficient. As of today 20 million tonnes of grain has been exported," he said, adding that by the end of the season on July 1 Russia will have carryover stocks of 15-18 million tonnes. Russian Agriculture Minister Yelena Skrynnik said on Tuesday that Russian grain exports in the current 2011/12 crop year could reach 25 million tonnes.