February 23, 2004

US Pork Production To Hit Record High In 2004

U.S. commercial pork production in 2004 is expected to hit a new record high of 20.1 billion pounds, topping the 2003 level of 19.9 billion pounds, which currently is the annual record output.
 
Joel Greene, livestock analyst with the World Agricultural Outlook Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture, is presenting his livestock market forecasts here Friday at the USDA's 2004 Agricultural Outlook Forum.
 
Greene is forecasting 2004 U.S. hog prices to average in from $38 to $40 per hundredweight live basis. This will be about flat with 2003 prices which averaged $39.45.
 
He said there will be "a few more hogs to slaughter in 2004," than in 2003 but the number is expected to be about 300,000 head short of the record of 101.5 million hit in 1999. Average carcass weights are expected to be about a half pound heavier in 2004, compared with 2003, which will push total pork output to a new record high.
 
The production will be done from a smaller breeding herd due to increased sow productivity, as measured by pigs per litter, Greene said. In the latest quarterly hogs and pigs report released in December, the swine breeding herd was estimated at 5.97 million head, down about 1% from the previous year.
 
Retail pork prices in 2004 are forecast to be in the mid-$2.60s per pound, also about even with year-earlier levels. However, this would be below where prices were during the last half of 2003 when pork prices climbed along with beef and poultry due to tightened supplies overall and strong demand.
 
Hogs and pigs continued to pour in from Canada in 2003, with the total reaching a record 7.4 million head, Greene said. Two-thirds of the total were feeder pigs brought in to be finished on U.S. farms. "Available grain, slaughter capacity and established business relationships" (between U.S. hog finishers and Canadian pig producers) are expected to continue to drive feeder pigs movement from Canada to the U.S.
 
Greene forecasts hog imports for 2004 to reach nearly 7.4 million head. During the first six weeks of 2004, hog imports were running well ahead of the year-ago pace, according to USDA's weekly import reports.
 
Pork exports are seen rising about 3% in 2004 to 1.77 billion pounds. Last year, pork exports expanded by about 6% as sales grew to Japan, South Korea, China, Taiwan, Hong Kong and Mexico along with some of the smaller markets in Central America, the Caribbean and Eastern Europe, Greene said.
 
He said exports this year likely will get a boost on improved buying interest from countries that have banned imports of U.S. beef - because of the mad-cow case in December - and poultry after the recent cases of low- pathogenic avian influenza. The weaker U.S. dollar also could favor U.S. pork exports over Canada and Denmark, especially to Japan.