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February 22, 2017
 
No sign of recovery for Vietnam hog prices
 
An eFeedLink Exclusive
 
 
Price summary
 
Live hog prices continued to slide towards the Tet holiday.
 

Procurement price of live hog over 80kg (Expressed in VND 1,000/kg)

 

W1

W2

W3

W4

Dong Nai

34,000

33,000

33,000

31,500

Binh Duong

32,500

31,000

31,000

30,000

Can Tho

32,000

32,000

31,000

31,000

HCM

35,000

34,000

35,000

33,000

Hanoi

34,000

34,000

35,000

32,000

(VND1,000 = US$0.044 as of January)

 
 
Market analysis
 
According to the Dong Nai Livestock Association, in spite of the approach of Lunar New Year, pork prices in Dong Nai continued to fall sharply and there were no signs of recovery due to oversupply. In January, hog prices for size 80 to 100 kilogram per head ranged from VND26,000 to 30,000 (US$1.14–1.31). At that price level, farmers were expected to make a loss of about VND1 to 1.4 million (US$43.80 to 61.32) per quintal (60 kilograms).
 
Daily demand from Ho Chi Minh city was only about 10,000 hogs, of which Dong Nai supplied more than 6,000 head. And from the beginning of December 2016, China stopped buying hogs from Dong Nai, causing an excess of 3,000 head per day to pour into Ho Chi Minh city and the neighboring provinces. Even though prices fell sharply, farmers in Dong Nai were compelled to sell, and in particular hogs weighing more than 100 kilogram per head were the hardest to sell.
 
In Vinh Long and Nam Dinh, live hog prices decreased by about VND5,000 (US$0.22) and VND 6,000 (US$0.26) per kilogram respectively compared to earlier in January, reaching VND30,000 (US$1.32) and VND32,000 (US$1.40) per kilogram respectively.
 
Although hog prices were plummeting, prices of veterinary drugs rose across the board, the lowest increase being 3.5% and the highest increase being 17%. This only caused more difficulties for farmers. In response, the Dong Nai Livestock Association proposed to the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development that companies involved in the manufacturing and trading of animal feed and veterinary drugs should not raise prices, in order to reduce the difficulties for farmers when pork prices are down.
 
 
Market forecast
 
To discourage farmers from vacating their farms, which would result in an imbalance between supply and demand in the future, the Department of Husbandry recommended farmers to continue production in any case. If farmers vacated their farms, according to the Department, the domestic market will face a supply shortage within the next four to six months. Instead, while farmers should not increase production excessively, they should coordinate with other livestock enterprises along the production chain (breeding, animal feed, processing, marketing etc.) to reduce risk. Besides, a production chain approach would help to better ensure food hygiene and safety, according to the Department.
 


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