February 22, 2013

US sees lower wheat stocks in Feb 2013

U.S. wheat stocks for 2012/13 are estimated at be lower by 25 million bushels in February 2013, with higher than expected feed and residual disappearance.

Feed and residual use is projected 25 million bushels higher as weaker cash prices relative to corn support opportunities for increased wheat use in livestock and poultry rations.

Feed and residual use is raised 10 million bushels each for hard red winter (HRW) and soft red winter (SRW) wheat, and raised five million bushels for white wheat. Projected all-wheat exports for 2012/13 are unchanged, but HRW and hard red spring (HRS) wheat are lowered 25 million bushels and five million bushels, respectively.

Offsetting these reductions are projected increases in SRW and white wheat exports of 25 million bushels and five million bushels, respectively. By-class export changes largely reflect the pace of sales and shipments to date. The projected season-average farm price for wheat is narrowed US$0.05 on both ends of the range to US$7.70-US$8.10 per bushel.

Global wheat supplies are forecast slightly higher this month, with a small production decrease offset by increased beginning stocks. Global wheat use and ending stocks for 2012/13 are virtually unchanged. World wheat trade in 2012/13 is projected to be down slightly with US exports down 0.5 million tonnes on the July-June world trade year.