February 22, 2013

World rapeseed output may be larger than estimates

The world's rapeseed output may be larger than expected a month ago due to better prospects for India and Australia.

Palm oil output may also be bigger than previously projected.

The world's rapeseed harvest will be 61.3 million tonnes in the 2012-13 season, 500,000 tonnes more than forecast a month ago and 900,000 tonnes higher than a year earlier, when the global harvest fell to a three-year low. Estimates for India and Australia were revised to seven million tonnes and 3.2 million tonnes, respectively. In a January 18 report, Oil World pegged those countries' crops at 6.7 million tonnes and 3.15 million tonnes.

Global stockpiles of rapeseed and canola, a low-acid variety of the crop, may drop to 4.95 million tonnes by the end of the marketing year, the smallest in at least four seasons. Crushing from July to December rose to a record 30.8 million tonnes. World exports may tumble 21% from a year earlier to 5.3 million tonnes. The EU may become the world's largest importer from January to June, Oil World said.

Palm oil production in the 2012-13 marketing year that began October 1 may be 55.3 million tonnes, 300,000 tonnes higher than previously forecast and 3.4 million tonnes more than a year earlier, Oil World said. Output in Indonesia, the top producer, may be a record 27.4 million tonnes, while production may be 19.7 million tonnes in Malaysia.

Palm oil stockpiles that reached a record 10.5 million tonnes at the beginning of January may drop to about nine million tonnes by the end of March as global consumption exceeds production by as much as 1.5 million tonnes from January to March, Oil World said.