February 21, 2008

 

Brazil forecasts favourable weather for top harvesting soy states

 

 

The three-month outlook for weather in the late harvesting soy state, Rio Grande do Sul, bodes well for the 2007-08 crop, according to a forecast by the state's local National Meteorology Institute, or Inmet.

 

Rio Grande do Sul is Brazil's third largest soy producing state after Parana and Mato Grosso.

 

Since its location is in the cooler south, farmers plant soy later and harvests in mid-April to May while much of the national crop gets harvested in March.

 

Inmet said that March will see precipitation within historic averages statewide. April will be a little drier in the north and northeast soy regions.

 

Meanwhile, May is expected to see precipitation below average during harvest time.

 

Temperature highs over the period are expected to remain within historic averages, somewhere in the upper 20s Celsius, Inmet's Rio Grande do Sul office said.

 

January rainfall was below average throughout much of the state, however, leading some crop consultancies to lower their estimates for the state.

 

The National Commodities Supply Corp, or Conab, estimates the state will harvest 8.2 million tonnes of soy, down from 9.9 million tonnes last year.

 

The national estimate so far from Conab has 2007-08 soy output at 58.5 million tonnes, though private estimates from the Brazilian Vegetable Oils Industry Association, Abiove, have put it slightly over 60 million tonnes thus far.

 

According to local weather service, Somar, northern Rio Grande do Sul has gone around 20 days without rain.

 

Ground water levels in the region are about 50 percent to 40 percent.