February 20, 2012

Global coarse grain output forecast down 3.4 million tonnes

For 2011/12, the coarse grain output worldwide is forecast at 1,142.2 million tonnes, down 3.4 million tonnes this month mostly due to lessened estimates in Argentina.

Global corn production is forecast down four million tonnes to 864.1 million, and sorghum is reduced 0.1 million tonnes to 60.6 million, but barley prospects are increased 0.6 million tonnes to 134.0 million and oats are up 0.1 million tonnes to 23.2 million.

In Argentina, crop damage was confirmed for corn and sorghum. While crucial rains and milder temperatures in the latter half of January allowed filling corn and sorghum to recoup some loses, rainfall for the month was below normal in most of the key growing areas, and temperatures averaged above normal.

While the drought in South America during December and January extended into Southern Brazil, damaging production prospects for first-crop corn, favourable conditions for the second crop are offsetting, leaving total projected corn production unchanged this month. In Paraguay, however, corn production losses will not be offset, and 2011/12 area and yield prospects are reduced this month, cutting production 0.35 million tonnes to 1.65 million.

In Australia, ample summer rains in Queensland and Northern New South Wales improved sorghum yield prospects, boosting 2011/12 production 0.2 million tonnes to 2.6 million. The Philippines reported increased corn plantings, increasing projected production 0.14 million tonnes to 7.14 million.