February 20, 2006

US 2006 beef output seen up 5.2 percent, pork up 2.5 percent

The US Department of Agriculture on Friday (Feb 17) at its annual Agricultural Outlook Forum projected 2006 US commercial beef production at nearly 26.0 billion pounds, up about 5.2 percent from last year's output of 24.7 billion.

The agency expects fed cattle marketing this year to be about 3 percent larger than a year ago and commercial cattle slaughter to be up about 5 percent. Increased imports of cattle from Canada will supplement US-raised supplies. Average carcass weights are projected to be up slightly this year.

Beef exports for 2006 are forecast to exceed 2005 by about 31 percent and reach 905 million pounds, compared with 689 million pounds in 2005. Mexico and Canada remained the largest importers of US beef in 2005. Sales to Japan are expected to resume but the volume throughout 2006 is seen limited because of relatively high prices and competition from cheaper imported beef from Australia and other meats.

USDA projects fed steer prices to decline slightly from last year's record high average of US$87.28 per hundredweight to around US$83 to US$87 this year.

Commercial pork production is expected to reach 21.2 billion pounds, up about 2.5 percent from the record amount of 20.7 billion pounds produced in 2005. The USDA says the domestic hog herd likely will not expand much, if at all, in 2006 but continued gains in pigs produced per litter and sow performance will push the pig crop up about 1 percent.

The peak in 2006 hog prices is expected to be reached during the second quarter around US$45 to US$47 per hundredweight on a live basis, with the year's average projected at US$42 to US$45, down about 13 percent from last year.

Pork sales internationally are seen up about 4 percent in 2006 at a record 2.76 billion pounds. Sales to Japan, Mexico and South Korea set new records in 2005. Sales of US pork to Asia helped fill gaps in the beef and poultry supplies caused by concerns of BSE and highly pathogenic bird flu, USDA said.