February 20, 2004

 

South Africa's 2003-04 Corn Estimates 6.80 Million MT Vs 9.40M MT 2002-03

 

South Africa's National Crop Estimates Committee Thursday said in its first official estimate of 2003-04 summer crops that it expects commercial farmers to produce 6.80 million metric tons of yellow and white corn compared with actual output of 9.40 million tons in 2002-03.

 

Most agricultural analysts were expecting an estimate of around 6.5 million tons largely due to unusually dry conditons in the important planting months of November and December and the growing months of January and February.

 

The committee, which will issue monthly estimates until October, cut the estimated area under corn to 2.63 million hectares from 3.18 million ha in the previous season.

 

It estimated white corn output at 4.16 million tons compared with 6.36 million tons last season and forecast yellow corn output of 2.63 million tons compared with 3.02 million tons in 2002-03.

 

Steve Shone, general manager of producer body grain South Africa, said land and aerial surveys of summer crop areas have shown that lack of rainfall has badly affected crops across large tracts of South Africa.

 

"Our studies show it is highly unlikely that farmers can produce more than 6.5 million tons this season," he said.

 

"It's likely that yellow corn imports will be needed and that there will be some white corn substitution for yellow corn by animal feed producers."

 

Commenting on South Africa's budget released Wednesday, he said most of the drought relief promised by Finance Minister Trevor Manuel would go to farm workers rather than farm owners.

 

But he welcomed the increased fuel levy rebate for farmers and the announcement of 750 million rand ($1=ZAR6.65) for land reform.

 

Giving its forecast for other summer crops, the estimates committee said it expected sunflower production to fall to 551,425 tons compared with 642,610 tons in the previous season.

 

On sorghum, it said production should fall to 198,000 tons from 219,514 tons while soybean output is seen increasing to 146,465 tons from 136,520 tons.

 

Production of dry beans is expected to increase to 63,370 tons from 60,295 tons while output of groundnuts is expected to rise to 77,410 tons from 60,065 tons.

 

On wheat, the committee left its estimate for the 2003-04 season unchanged at 1.46 million tons.

 

As wheat is a winter crop, this crop has already been harvested. The summer crops will only begin to be harvested in June.