February 19, 2014
According to the International Grains Council (IGC), global wheat harvest area is forecast to increase by 2.5%, to 224.2 million hectares (Mha).
Charlotte Garbutt, senior analyst - cereal and oilseed, Home Grown Cereals Authority (HGCA), said the forecast marked the third consecutive year of growth in global wheat harvest area, as the relative attractiveness of wheat prices against other crops maintains growers' interest.
However while the estimates are positive, it is still early days, and the events over the next 12 months, will have considerably more influence on the result than the last six, according to the HCGA's report.
Record harvest areas are estimated for China at 24.3 Mha and India at 31.5 Mha, which combined now harvest a quarter of the world's wheat area.
Canada is expected to harvest a smaller area of 9.9 Mha than the 10-year high achieved in 2013 of 10.4 Mha, while the EU is forecast to increase wheat harvest area by 0.4 Mha to 26.1 Mha, mainly at the expense of corn.
Garbutt said the UK will make up the majority of the increase as the wheat area is thought to have returned to around 1.9 – 2 Mha (1.6 Mha in 2013) but other key EU countries also show an increase.
According to figures from Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (DEFRA) last month, UK wheat supply and demand remained finely balanced, with lower demand by human and industrial consumers offsetting a decline in availability.
Due to lower production, UK wheat availability is forecast at 15.737 million tonnes, 1% lower than November's estimate, with UK wheat production reduced to 11.92 million tonnes in the final DEFRA Crop Production Survey, 10% lower than in 2012-13. Wheat imports were estimated at 1.630 million tonnes, slightly higher than the 1.615 million tonnes forecast in November, but 45% lower than 2012-13.
Recent figures from Mintec also revealed that the price of milling wheat in the UK has recovered from the lows in August, in line with higher prices in the EU, which were pushed up by strong export demand. Recently, however, prices fell as a result of weakness in the global market.
