February 19, 2004

 

 

Asian Bird Flu Threat Diminishing

 

The World Health Organization believes that the bird flu epidemic will not cause substantial human casualties in its current form.

 

"We are increasingly optimistic that we will not get a major outbreak," said Bjorn Melgaard, WHO's representative in Thailand. "I would certainly expect some more cases but not a large number."

 

The bird flu virus has hit 10 Asian nations, but human infections have only been reported in Thailand and Vietnam, with 7 and 15 deaths respectively and dozens more suspected cases still being tested.

 

"We now have nearly one month behind us of lessons where the number of cases has only increased very, very slowly," Melgaard said.

 

"In Vietnam it's the same pattern, so we would expect that there might be additional cases among those that are currently under investigation, but we would not expect an explosion in the number of human cases."

 

The (A)H5N1 bird flu virus is extremely deadly, but so far it is believed that humans can catch it only by coming into contact with sick chickens or their droppings and secretions.

 

However, Melgaard said there was still a real fear that bird flu could combine with an easily transmissible human influenza to create a deadly pathogen that could kill millions of people.

 

"We still have as the major concern of the WHO this transformation, the shift into a new virus that would have the potential to cause a pandemic," he said, adding: "The virus in its current form is not a cause of major concern for human health."

 

Thailand, meanwhile, warned Tuesday as it battled a major resurgence of bird flu that more outbreaks were likely to erupt across the nation.

 

The disease has also spread in the United States, with Pennsylvania the third northern state to find a weaker strain among chicken flocks.

 

And in Japan, which has so far had only one case, the authorities in the country's southwest were investigating a possible second outbreak of (A)H5N1 bird flu.

 

Thailand announced Monday that bird flu had re-emerged in nine provinces, just days before it had planned to declare the crisis over and begin rebuilding its shattered $1.2 billion poultry export business.

 

The deputy agriculture minister, Newin Chidchob, said that the Thai people and financial markets should brace themselves for more bad news when the results of a new round of testing were released.