February 18, 2010
El Nino prepares Philippines for worst case crop scenario in Q1
The Philippine Department of Agriculture is expecting the worst case scenario for crop production in the first half of 2010 due to the ongoing dry spell, involving a 10% drop from the same period in 2009.
Crops account for 53.89% of total agricultural production, which also includes livestock, poultry and fisheries.
Bureau of Agricultural Statistics data showed that the country produced PHP80 billion (US$1.73 billion) worth of various crops in the first half last year, including PHP24 billion (US$519.93 million) worth of 7.37 million tonnes MT) of palay and PHP10 billion (US$216.63 million) worth of 3.2 million tonnes of corn.
Agriculture undersecretary Bernie Fondevilla said the department hopes that crop production will rebound in the second semester or once the dry spell will have ended.
Nathaniel A. Cruz, officer-in-charge of operations and services of local weather bureau Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical & Astronomical Services Administration (PAG-ASA) said they are still looking at a "moderate" El Niño dry spell that will last until June.
Latest official data released earlier this week showed that the country had lost PHP1.39 billion (US$30.11 million) worth of crops as of Feb. 8. The figures cover 101,000 tonnes of rice, corn and high value commercial crops.
The Agriculture department had earlier estimated that a "mild" dry spell would exact losses for the whole year amounting to: 264,940 tonnes of rice worth PHP4 billion (PHP86.65 million), 174,224 tonnes of corn worth PHP2.26 billion (US$48.96 million), and 3.17 million tonnes of various high-value commercial crops worth PHP583 million (US$12.63 million).
A "severe" dry spell, on the other hand, will cause losses amounting to 816,372 tonnes of rice worth PHP12.24 billion (US$265.21 million), 440,429 tonnes of corn worth PHP5.2 billion (US$112.76 million), and 3.08 million tonnes of high-value crops worth PHP443 million (US$9.60 million).
Total agricultural production losses could reach P8.09 billion under a "mild" dry spell and P20.46 billion under a "severe" one.
Economist Victor A. Abola of the University of Asia and the Pacific said that while a 10% decline is possible in the first half, it is unlikely that crop production will drop that low for the entire year because the bigger crop harvest is in the second semester. He said that during the 1998 severe El Niño, crop production has gone down by 14.22 percent.
Philippine President Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo said the country need not significantly hike its importation of rice and other staples amid the dry spell as the food supply remains stable but it is the income of farmers that might be affected.
