CBOT Soy Outlook on Thursday: Seen mixed; market looking for direction

 

 

Chicago Board of Trade soybean futures are seen mixed to start Thursday's day session, continuing to consolidate in the absence of fresh market moving news.

 

Overnight, CBOT March soybeans gained 1/4 cent to US$9.51 3/4 a bushel, and May soybeans were 1/2 cent higher at US$9.61 1/2.

 

Choppy activity is anticipated based off overnight action, as the market looks for direction.

 

A quiet news front is not providing leadership, but bearish South American crop outlooks, a firmer U.S. dollar and lower crude oil, metal and equity futures is sending some bearish signals to the market, said Victor Lespinasse, analyst with Grainanalyst.com.

 

Traders will keep an eye on developments from the government's outlook conference and outside markets, with light short covering expected after Wednesday's declines.

 

Otherwise, analysts expect a choppy theme will continue to play out, as prices remain stuck in a range. End user buying will underpin prices on price breaks while South American hedge pressure is seen capping advances on rallies, analysts said.

 

A technical analyst said the next downside price objective for March soybeans is pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at last week's low of US$9.18 3/4. The next upside technical objective is pushing and closing March prices above major psychological resistance at US$10.00.

 

The U.S. Department of Agriculture now expects U.S. farmers to plant 77 million acres of soybeans in 2010, Chief Economist Joseph Glauber speaking at the USDA's two-day, annual Agricultural Outlook Forum said Thursday. 2009 U.S. soybean planted acreage was 77.5 million. The USDA will issue a more detailed outlook for grain and oilseed crops on Friday.

 

USDA's weekly export sales report, normally released on Thursday, will be postponed until 8:30 a.m. EST Friday due to Monday's Presidents Day holiday.

 

Options on March soy futures expire Friday.

 

In overseas markets, crude palm oil futures on Malaysia's derivatives exchange weakened Thursday to close at a key support level as declines in crude oil and soyoil futures weighed on sentiment, trade participants said. The May CPO contract on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives ended MYR28 lower at MYR2,600 a metric tonne.

 

Soybean futures traded on the Dalian Commodity Exchange were closed for the Lunar New Year holiday.

 

Rotterdam soybean prices were lower while soymeal prices were steady to lower. European vegoil prices were mixed.