February 18, 2008

 

Beef cow numbers down, dairy cow numbers up in the US
            

 

The recent United States Department of Agriculture's cattle inventory report confirmed analysts' expectations of lower numbers for the US cattle herd. As of the 1 January 2008, the US cattle herd totaled 96.7 million head, falling slightly below the 1 January 2007 cattle inventory of 97.0 million head.

           

The decline in US beef cow numbers in 2007 was caused by high feed and other input costs and the severe drought in the Southeast region, the American Farm Bureau Federation (AFBF) said.

            

Meat and Livestock Australia (MLA) noted a mix of dry conditions in the southeast of the US and higher feed cost has seen beef cow numbers decline 1 percent on 1 January 2007, to 32.6 million head. Heifers retained for beef cow replacement fell 4 percent, to 5.67 million head. All other heifers ( except for that of milk cows) were slightly down on 2007, to 9.88 million head. The 2007 calf crop was estimated at 37.4 million head, 0.4 percent lower than 2006.

 

The calf crop is not expected to recover over next few years, given the number of cows and heifers, and the fall in heifers held as beef cow replacements. The higher feed prices is also likely to discourage producers from expanding herd numbers in the near term, with debate surrounding whether the US is likely to see any significant increases in beef cow numbers in even in the long term.

        

At the end of 2007, there were 338,000 fewer cows than the same period in 2006. This indicates that herd liquidation has occurred in 10 of the last 12 years. In 2006, the USDA reported a fall of 103,000 cows.

            

The country's 2007 beef calf was the smallest in 56 years.

            

AFBF livestock economist, Jim Sartwelle, said the USDA report is an indicator of US beef production for the next two to three years.

            

Sartwelle pointed that the decline in the US beef cow numbers was the result of drought in most Southeastern states. He said that the industry can expect beef prices to be more volatile as costs of production remain high

            

Three states: Tennessee, Kentucky, Alabama and Georgia accounted for 54 percent of the nation's beef cow herd reduction.

      

While slimmer profits has led to a trimming of cow herds, high milk prices are prompting farmers to increase the number of milk cows. Milk cows that have calved has been increased by 1 percent or 9.2 million head. Heifers kept for milk cow replacement were up 3 percent to 4.5 million head.

 

The inventory of replacement heifers expected to calve during 2008 increased by 91,000 head.