February 17, 2010

US soy stocks to rise moderately in August

Soy stocks in the US are likely to rise moderately to 5.0 million tonnes in end-August 2010 from 3.76 million tonnes in August 2009, Hamburg-based oilseeds analysts Oil World forecast on Tuesday (Feb 16).

"This would be only 5.5% of annual usage and thus again be very tight, although slightly higher than last year's extremely low 4.5%, leaving hardly any cushion for weather problems in the US this summer," it said.

Such stocks would also give the US little scope to jump into the world market and raise exports should South American new crop shipments in early-2010 be reduced by harvest delays, low farmer selling or transport problems, it said.

Stock growth was restrained as US soy exports were even larger than expected in past months following poor South American soy crops in early 2009.

US soy exports were higher than forecast in January 2010 at around 5.70 million tonnes against 4.17 million tonnes in January 2009, it said.

But it forecasts US February soy exports will fall to 4.2 million tonnes from 4.41 million tonnes in February 2009 as new crop soybeans from large South American harvests arrive on world markets, with the US export decline accelerating from March onwards.

However, Oil World still forecasts US September 2009-August 2010 soy exports will reach 39.4 million tonnes, up from 34.9 million tonnes in the previous year.