US to dominate world corn exports despite slow global trade

US corn exports will still lead the world markets even after 2009, according to US Department of Agriculture (USDA) projections released on Feb. 13.

Argentina will remain the world's second largest corn exporter with its still small domestic corn market. Argentina will shift some cropland from corn to soy production due to higher export taxes, hence, corn exports will increase slowly. Argentina and other South American countries will increase corn exports to Chile to support its expanding pork exports.

The USDA also reports that European Union is gradually becoming a more competitive corn exporter due to increased area and yields. More than double shipments during the projection period from the region is seen, says to USDA projections.

Ukraine's corn exports will also rise to nearly 5 million tonnes by 2018 due to favourable resource endowments, increasing economic openness and greater investment, says USDA. However, efforts to increase meat production and reduce meat imports will keep exports from growing further.

On the other hand, Brazil's corn exports are near record-high levels during the early years of the projections, according to the report. In the last several years, Brazil has targeted EU for non-genetically modified grain. However, this opportunity is seen to diminish as Brazil legalises planting of genetically modified corn varieties while the EU reduces imports. Also, strong growth in domestic demand from its livestock and poultry sectors and the profitability of growing soy will limit corn production and exports.

China is seen to become a net importer of about 2 million tonnes of corn at the end of the projections as imports grow slowly while exports remain small, according to the projections. China's expanding livestock and industrial sectors will drive its strengthening domestic demand.