February 16, 2005

Demand from China to fuel US corn export growth - USDA

US Department of Agriculture economists expect US corn exports to rise by 100 million bushels in the 2005-06 marketing year and continue to increase over the next 10 years, with Chinese demand becoming an increasingly large factor.

USDA economist David Stallings said China's livestock sector is growing fast while farmland there for corn production is limited. That, he said, is pulling down China's corn stocks and fueling corn imports.

Mr Stallings also said that China's growing need to import feedstuffs for livestock will mean that China will become a net importer of corn starting in the 2007-08 marketing year.

That is good news for U.S. corn exports.

USDA's new 10-year projections show U.S. corn exports rising steadily from 2.15 billion bushels in the 2005-06 marketing year to 2.975 billion bushels by 2014-15.

China's corn supplies are still high but dropping, according to the latest monthly USDA supply-and-demand report that put 2004-05 ending stocks at 33 million metric tons. Ending stocks for the previous marketing year were estimated at about 44 million metric tons.

But there is still uncertainty over exactly how much corn China has, Stallings said with exact estimates of China's corn stocks still unknown.