February 15, 2008
World meat exports to rise 20 percent by 2017
The outlook for the world's meat trade remains bright, with beef imports by major importers rising 23 percent from 2008 to 2017 while pork and chicken are to rise by 24 percent and 18 percent respectively, according to a USDA 10-year projection released Tuesday (15 February 2008).
Rising per capita incomes and population growth in some countries are the main reasons for the projected growth in global meat demand.
The forecast assume no changes in the countries recognizing Brazil as free of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD), which currently limits Brazilian pork's competitiveness. However, Brazil's pork exports are expected to be competitive in price sensitive markets such as Russia.
Canada is expected to remain as the world's third largest pork exporter.
In the coming decade, Brazil is expected to continue to be the largest poultry products exporter due to low production costs and competitive export prices.
US poultry meat exports are expected to increase, partially due to a weak dollar that increases competitiveness.
Poultry from countries affected by bird flu such as Thailand and China are expected to be mostly fully cooked products.
Pork: China's imports to double
Pork imports by major importers are expected to increase about 24 percent or nearly 1 million tonnes between 2008 and 2017.
This means the pork trade would rise from 3.9 million tonnes in 2007 to 5 million tonnes by 2017.
China's pork imports is expected to double to 266,000 tonnes by 2017, from 130,000 tonnes in 2007.
Increasing incomes in China is expected to boost per capita pork consumption and imports. However, China's pork production and exports will continue to grow.
Domestic environmental concerns on pollution are expected to increase pork imports from other East Asian countries. Concerns with mad cow disease in South Korea and Japan also act to push up pork demand.
Japan is expected to see a 12.7 percent increase in pork imports by 2017 to 1.3 million tonnes while South Korea is expected to see a 30-percent increase in pork imports to 587,000 tonnes, up from 450,000 tonnes in 2007.
Mexico's pork imports are expected to be up 38 percent or 150,000 tonnes during the period. Increases in income and population will be the main reason for Mexico's increasing demand for pork.
Pork imports would grow significantly in Russia, up 28 percent from 2007 levels by 2017, with volumes up to 1.1 million tonnes by then.
It is assumed that Russia's tariff-rate quota for pork will remain in effect until 2009. Russia is expected to import more pork as demand exceeds domestic supply.
Poultry: South Korea's poultry import to triple
East Asia is projected to import 20 percent more poultry meat in 2017 than in 2008, with South Korea accounting for most of the increase.
Poultry meat imports by major importers are expected to increase about 18 percent or 1.4 million tonnes between 2008 and 2017.
Thus, the volumes in the overall poultry trade is expected to rise from 5.3 million tonnes in 2007 to 6.7 million tonnes by 2017.
Russia is expected to remain as the world's largest poultry importer. However, as rising domestic production is expected to meet consumption, slow growth is expected for poultry imports for the next decade. The country's chicken imports are expected to grow only 1.6 percent to 1.27 million tonnes by 2017.
China's rising consumption of poultry meat will be met by expanding domestic production as well. However, the country's imports are expected to grow 40 percent from 513,000 tonnes in 2017 to 724,000 tonnes by 2017. This meant it would surpass Japan in terms of volumes imported.
In contrast, Japan's poultry imports are expected to grow just 4 percent, rising from 675,000 tonnes to 704,000 tonnes during the same period.
More interestingly, South Korea's poultry imports in the next ten years is likely to triple from the current 61,000 tonnes to 195 ,000 tonnes by 2017.
Due to bird flu, some major poultry exporters have shifted most of their exports to fully cooked products. The higher costs of these products mean they will be marketed to developed or high-income countries in all regions.
Poultry imports by Saudi Arabia, North Africa and the Middle East are expected to grow. Animal diseases in some countries are expected to slow down domestic production and at the same time, increase demand for imports.
Rising consumer incomes are expected to increase poultry demand and imports in some Central America and Caribbean countries. Demand will also be boosted by the cheaper price of poultry than beef or pork. These countries along with Mexico are expected to become one of the largest markets for poultry imports.
Beef: Lack of land to stimulate beef imports in East Asia
Beef imports by major importers are expected to increase about 23 percent or 1.3 million tonnes between 2008 and 2017. This means beef trade would rise to 7.0 million tonnes by 2017 from 5.4 million tonnes currently.
Countries with higher income, such as Japan and South Korea, are increasing beef imports due to a lack of land domestically, with most imports being grain-fed beef. US presence is expected to expand in these countries, although there continues to be a strong presence of Australia and New Zealand in these markets.
Japan's beef imports are expected to rise 19 percent from the current 715,000 tonnes while South Korea's beef imports are expected to rise a sharper 36 percent from the current 315,000 tonnes.
US beef imports are expected to rise slightly through the period. Strong Asian imports of beef from Australia and New Zealand are also expected.
US exports of higher quality beef to Mexico is also expected to grow strongly.
It is assumed that Russia's tariff-rate quota for beef will remain in effect until 2009. Russia's beef imports will increase over time as consumer demand exceeds domestic production so that it remains a large market for EU and Brazilian beef exports. Russia's beef imports are expected to rise 33 percent from 1.05 million tonnes to 1.39 million tonnes.
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