February 15, 2005

 

 

Australia Abare: 2004-05 wheat crop falls 21% to 20.4 million MT

 

An official production forecast for the 2004-05 Australian wheat crop was revised up a little Tuesday to 20.4 million metric tons from a Nov. 30 estimate of 20.2 million tons.

 

Wheat output in the current crop year is 21% lower than production of 25.7 million tons in the last crop year ended March 31, 2004, which also was revised up from a previous estimate of 24.9 million tons, according to Australia's chief commodities forecaster.

 

The production forecasts are contained in the latest Crop Report issued by the government's Australian Bureau of Agricultural & Resource Economics.

 

Australia is usually a major global wheat supplier through monopoly bulk exporter AWB Ltd.

 

Abare revised up its estimate of total winter crop production this crop year to 31.5 million tons from a November estimate of 31.0 million tons.

 

An estimate for total winter grains production for last crop year was revised up to a record 40.3 million tons from a November estimate of 39.4 million tons.

 

Abare said new crop winter grains production fell in all states except New South Wales, with output in Western Australia, South Australia and Victoria down by at least 25% compared to last crop year.

 

"Warmer than usual temperatures, frosts and dry conditions have been influences in the reduced winter crop production in these states," Abare said in its Crop Report.

 

Abare also said central Queensland experienced a dry growing season, resulting in a sharp fall in yields.

 

                  AUSTRALIAN WHEAT PRODUCTION BY STATE

                       (millions of metric tons)

                     Latest     Previous   Output Last

                    Forecast    Forecast    Crop year

New South Wales       6.9          6.7         6.7

Victoria              2.1          2.0         3.4

Queensland            1.1          1.0         1.2

Western Australia     7.7          7.7        10.7

South Australia       2.6          2.8         3.8

TOTAL                20.4         20.2        25.7

 

(Source: Abare. Note: figures have been rounded.)

 

Abare estimated that in the shipping year ending Sept. 30, 2005, Australia's consumption of wheat was 5.23 million tons, compared with 5.17 million tons last year.

 

Exports will fall this shipping year to 16.7 million tons from an actual 17.9 million tons last year, Abare said.

 

Inventories this shipping year will decline by 1.6 million tons, swinging from an addition of 2.7 million tons last year, Abare said.

 

      MAJOR AUSTRALIAN WINTER-GROWN CROP PRODUCTION

               (millions of metric tons)

 

            Latest   Previous  Output Last

           Forecast  Forecast   Crop Year

 

Wheat       20.4      20.2       25.7

Barley       6.2       6.2        8.7

Oats         1.1       1.1        1.5

Canola       1.5       1.2        1.6

Lupins       0.8       0.8        1.0

Fields Peas  0.3       0.4        0.4

Chick Peas   0.1       0.1        0.2

Faba Beans   0.2       0.3        0.3

Lentils      0.1       0.1        0.2

 

(Source: Abare)