February 15, 2005

 

 

Argentina's 2004-05 soy crop to total 37.7 million tons

 

Argentina's farmers will harvest 37.7 million metric tons of 2004-05 soybeans, according to the Buenos Aires Cereals Exchange forecast on Monday.

 

The forecast is based on the assumption that yields will average 2.6 tons per hectare. Under ideal climatic conditions, this would lift soybean output to over 38 million tons. However, the exchange noted that poor weather could hinder production.

 

"In optimal climatic conditions, this volume (37.7 million tons) could be surpassed," the exchange said. "However, the about face climatic change from a dry period to, more recently, a more humid one, increases sanitary risks and creates conditions that are favorable for the spread of Asian rust. Because of that, this production forecast is subject to future environmental conditions."

 

Asian rust has been found in a few provinces in northern Argentina, but has not yet become a serious problem for soybean farmers.

 

The US Department of Agriculture, which sees the average yield this year at 2.76 tons/hectare, estimates Argentina's 2004-05 soy output at 39 million tons. The Agriculture Secretariat has forecast production at between 31 million and 39 million tons, depending on the weather. The most likely result, says the Secretariat, is output of around 35 million tons.

 

By Saturday, farmers had planted 99.7% of the crop, the exchange said. This figure is unchanged from a week ago.

 

The exchange sees the 2004-05 area at 14.67 million hectares. So far farmers have planted 14,621,200 million hectares.

 

Last year, farmers planted 14.5 million hectares and harvested 32.2 million tons of soy, according to the exchange.

 

Corn

 

Meanwhile, farmers are trying to finish planting the 2004-05 corn crop, the exchange said.

 

As of Saturday, they had planted 99.9% of the crop. This is unchanged from a week ago.

 

Farmers have just begun collecting the 2004-05 corn harvest.

 

The exchange sees the planted area of exportable corn at 2.565 million hectares. Last year, area totaled 2.28 million hectares. As of Saturday, farmers had planted 2,563,150 hectares.

 

Last year, Argentina produced 13.1 million tons of corn, according to the exchange.

 

The USDA has forecast Argentina's 2004-05 output at 17 million tons while the Agriculture Secretariat has put it at between 18 million and 19 million.

 

Farmers will harvest 18.6 million tons of 2004-05 corn, the exchange forecasts.

 

This estimate is based on higher-than-expected yields. Yields are expected to total a record 7.3 tons per hectare because of fresh rain and favorable climatic conditions. In some areas, yields will even surpass 10 tons/hectare.