February 14, 2008

 

CBOT Soy Outlook on Thursday: 10-15 cents higher on overnight price strength

 

 

Chicago Board of Trade soybean futures are predicted to start day session trading 10-to-15 cents higher, following the strong tone in the overnight session and talk of fresh interest from importers, a commission house analyst said.

 

In overnight e-CBOT trading, March soybeans rose 15 cents to US$13.43 1/2 per bushel and November soybeans also gained 15 cents to US$12.86. March E-CBOT volume was 6,773 contracts.

 

Soybeans were higher overnight on talk of renewed interest from China in oilseeds, a commission house analyst said. There are concerns about the damage to the country's rapeseed crop from the recent winter storms and that helped supply support to palm oil overnight as well as soybeans, the analyst said.

 

Weekly U.S. soybean export sales for the week ended Feb. 7 totaled 328,400 metric tonnes, the U.S. Department of Agriculture reported, slightly below the bottom end of the range of estimates of 350,000-to-800,000 tonnes by analysts.

 

The monthly National Oilseed Processor Association reported their January monthly soybean crush was 152.439 million bushels, below analysts' expectations. The report was not friendly, the crush was lower than expectations and oil stocks were higher, a trader said. However, it probably won't have much of an impact, the trader noted.

 

A brief 2-to-4 day period of hot, dry weather over southern Brazil soybean areas during the short range with a return to rains in the area by the middle of next week will end any stress to filling soybeans, DTN Meteorlogix Weather said.

 

Warmer weather in Argentina over the next several days will probably benefit the crop before the next chance of rain for later this weekend, Meteorlogix Weather said.

 

On daily technical charts, July soybeans closed higher and near the session high as bean bulls are hanging tough despite weakening wheat and corn prices, a technical analyst said. The next upside objective is to push and close prices above solid resistance at US$13.75 per bushel. The next downside objective is to close prices blow US$13.30.

 

First resistance for July soybeans is seen at US$13.63, this week's high and then at US$13.75. First support is seen at US$13.50 and then at Wednesday's low of US$13.40.

 

In overseas markets, crude palm oil futures ended at a new closing high in anticipation of strong exports and tight supplies of other vegetable oils, traders said. The benchmark April contract on the Bursa Malaysia Derivative Exchange ended up MYR91 at MYR3,451/tonne.

 

In other soybean news, soybean futures on China's Dalian Commodities Exchange settled higher, boosted by rising vegetable oil prices on concerns of rapeseed crop losses after the recent winter storms. The benchmark September contract rallied RMB/68 higher to RMB 4,874 per metric tonne.