February 14, 2006

 

Cold Arctic air likely to affect Canada's winter wheat

 

 

An unusually warm winter may soon come to an end across the Canadian Prairies, with forecasts calling for a blast of Arctic air to hit later this week.

 

A sudden drop in temperatures would have negative implications for the region's winter wheat crops, as snow cover has been sparse in the West, said a Canadian Wheat Board official.

 

Environment Canada is forecasting lows of -30 deg C to hit most of Alberta, Saskatchewan and Manitoba by Thursday. Average temperatures have stayed well above normal this winter across most of the agricultural regions.

 

With only small amounts of snow expected to accompany the downturn in temperatures, an abrupt shift would cause some concern for winter wheat in Alberta and western Saskatchewan, said Bruce Burnett, director of the weather and crops surveillance branch of the CWB. Those western regions of the Prairies are lacking protective snow cover in many areas, said Burnett. In Manitoba and eastern Saskatchewan the cold temperatures will not be as much of a concern, as snow cover is more widespread there, he added.

 

"A couple inches of snow would protect most of the crop," said Burnett.

 

Canadian winter wheat has not yet emerged from dormancy, so the growing point is still below the soil surface, said Burnett. He noted that if air temperatures get cold enough, soil temperatures will also drop significantly if there is no snow cover for protection. Burnett said winter wheat starts to die when soil temperatures hit -5 to -10 deg C.

 

"It depends on the duration of the cold temperatures and how much insulating value you get out of the snow cover in front of it," said Burnett.

 

Farmers in the three Prairie provinces planted about 750,000 acres of winter wheat in the fall of 2005, for harvest in 2006, according to Statistics Canada data. In Manitoba, roughly 330,000 acres were seeded, with 300,000 acres going in the ground in Saskatchewan and 120,000 acres in Alberta.

 

The milder temperatures so far this winter have also been noticed in the cattle sector, with feed grain demand down by at least a third, according to grain brokers. The cold weather should lead to a nearby increase in end-user demand for feed wheat and barley, said sources.

 

"It's not unusual weather for this time of year," said Cindy McCreath of the Canadian Cattlemen's Association. "We have gotten away lucky through most of the winter, and people have not had to feed nearly as much as normal," she said, adding that cold weather will just result in more normal feeding patterns.