February 13, 2009

                                              
Strategie Grains holds 2009-10 EU grain output at 296 million tonnes
                                   


European Union grain production in 2009-10 is forecast at 296 million tonnes, unchanged from the January estimate, analysts Strategie Grains said Thursday (February 12).

 

The 2009-10 production is now expected to be down 5 percent on the year, said the report.

 

Soft wheat production estimates for 2009-10 were down marginally from last month's at 132.2 million tonnes, down 5.6 percent on the previous year's 140.1 million tonnes. The group revised down its 2008-09 soft wheat output by 200,000 tonnes

 

Damage to crops from the cold spell at the beginning of January should be limited, the report said.

 

Within the EU, wheat demand is forecast to stay at the level of 2008-09 with a reduction for wheat usage in animal feeds offset by higher usage in ethanol and starch sectors.

 

The EU will have a large exportable wheat surplus of 23 million tonnes as long as there aren't "unfavourable weather," the report said. As a result, the group said the EU can "respond to high levels of world demand" and is forecast to export between 15 million and 20 million tonnes of wheat.
 
OUTPUT (MILLION TONNES)
 

Cereal

February 2009-10

January 2009-10

Sep 8

Change on-year

Soft wheat

132.20

132.30

140.10

-6%

Barley

63.50

63.20

65.70

-3%

Corn

57.80

58.00

62.20

-7%

Durum

8.60

8.70

9.70

-11%

Rye

9.20

9.10

9.30

-1%

Oats and others 

24.50

24.50

25.10

-2%

TOTAL

295.80

295.90

312.00

-5%

              
YIELDS (TONNES/HECTARE)
                 

Cereal

February 2009-10

January 2009-10

Sep 8

Change on-year

Soft wheat

5.80

5.80

6.10

-4%

Barley

4.50

4.50

4.50

-2%

Corn

6.80

6.80

7.10

-4%

Durum

3.00

3.00

3.10

-6%

Rye

3.30

3.30

3.40

-2%

Oats and others

3.30

3.30

3.40

-1%

AVERAGE

5.10

5.10

5.20

-3%

                     
AREA SOWN (million hectares)
                       

Cereal

February 2009-10

January 2009-10

Sep 8

Change on-year

Soft wheat

22.80

22.80

23.10

-1%

Barley

14.20

14.20

14.50

-2%

Corn

8.40

8.50

8.80

-4%

Durum

2.90

2.90

3.10

-5%

Rye

2.80

2.80

2.70

1%

Oats and others

7.40

7.40

7.40

-1%

TOTAL

58.50

58.60

59.70

-2%

                                                          

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