Beef demand may strengthen amid economic slowdown

Agricultural economists at Kansas State University and Michigan State University have revealed areas in which the beef industry can still strengthen demand for beef, despite a sagging global and US economy.

 

The research showed that nutrition, safety and convenience remain important factors when it comes to shoppers' attitudes toward buying beef, said James Mintert, agricultural economist with K-State Research and Extension. Price also has an effect, but the study found that modest price fluctuations have small discernable impacts on beef demand.

 

Other collaborators on the study were agricultural economists Ted Schroeder of K-State and Glynn Tonnesor of Michigan State University. The study, designed to provide a comprehensive and updated assessment of factors influencing US consumer demand for beef, was funded by the Cattlemen's Beef Board and several state beef and cattlemen's organizations.

 

Research has shown that although price is important, small price increases or declines by themselves have small impacts on beef consumption. Schroeder said the beef industry should focus on ensuring that consumers do not have non-price reasons (beef products should be nutritious, flavourful, tender, safe, healthy and convenient to prepare) to shift away from beef consumption.

 

The economist also said food safety recalls adversely impact domestic and foreign consumer demand for beef. Recalls have been on a "troubling upward trend" in recent years. In fact, beef food safety recalls jumped from 18 in 2006 to 38 in 2007. That rise alone contributed to a 2.6 percent drop in domestic retail beef demand, the study concluded.

 

Consumers are also influenced by health and nutrition information and the study examined how articles in medical journals affect beef demand. For example, the number of medical journal articles published linking fat in the diet with cholesterol and heart disease nearly quadrupled from 1982 through 2004. Beef demand declined about 9 percent because of this influx of information linking fat in the diet to cholesterol and heart disease, according to the study.

 

Similarly, the 268 percent increase in the number of medical journal articles published noting the importance of zinc, iron, and protein and diet from 1982 to 2007 boosted beef demand by about 7 percent, while also increasing poultry demand about 13 percent.

 

In addition, the study found that the net (positive minus negative) number of articles promoting low carbohydrate diets jumped by 245 percent from 1998 to 2003 and then fell after 2003.

 

The study's final report said media frenzy supporting low carbohydrate diets helped boost beef demand by nearly 2 percent from 1998 to 2003 and then fell after 2003.

 

Mintert said the implications are clear. First, he said conduct research that helps identify positive impacts derived from beef consumption. Second, these findings need to be presented to health professionals, nutritionists and, especially, consumers.

 

Furthermore, investing in the development of new production or processing technologies that enhance beef's nutritional properties can be a source of future demand improvement.

 

Convenience is another factor that researchers found key to beef demand. There are no direct measures of meat product preparation convenience at the industry level, so the study's authors examined two indirect measures: female employment outside the home and food consumed away from home.

 

The study found that as consumer demand for products that are convenient to prepare increases, beef demand suffers, but poultry and pork benefit probably due to differences in new product introductions, said Mintert.

 

He cited a new products database search from 1997 to 2008 containing the words Convenient, Ease of Use or other time-saving claims that identified 5,633 new poultry products, but just 3,579 new beef products.

 

There is no single dominant beef demand driver on which the industry should focus all of its attention, but Mintert said the study did identify and quantify the key factors affecting beef demand. He recommended recommend maintaining a portfolio of beef demand enhancement programs designed to address the key drivers in this study.