February 13, 2006
ASA Weekly: US soybean ending stocks seen larger than previously thought; South African bio-diesel plant could boost soy trade
US soybean ending stocks seen larger than previously thought
US soybean ending stocks for 2005/06 could reach a record 15.1 million tonnes, USDA said in last week's S&D report. USDA's 1.36 million tonne upward revision in their ending stock estimate arose from a 1.09-million-tonne export cut and a 272,000-tonne lower crush estimate. Soybean exports are projected at 24.8 million tonnes, 5.25 million tonnes below last year's record, USDA said.
On the product side, soybean meal and oil domestic use estimates were cut by quantities commensurate with the lower crush. Domestic soybean meal and oil consumption are both expected to be lower, reflecting lower-than-expected disappearance during the first quarter of the marketing year. Consequently, US soybean crush is likely to be 46.8 million tonnes, USDA said.
Meanwhile, USDA expects Brazil to produce 58.5 million tonnes of soybeans in 2005/06, while Argentina's crop estimate was lowered to 40 million tonnes from 40.5 million. Record Brazilian soybean exports for October through January have reduced bids for US soybeans in EU-25 and China, and large new-crop supplies in South America are expected to further pressure US exports in the second half of the marketing year.
Global oilseed production for 2005/06 is projected by USDA to be a record 389.3 million tonnes. Small declines for soybeans and sunflower seeds are more than offset by increased cottonseed production in China. Global oilseed stocks are projected at a record 63 million tonnes, 20 percent above year-earlier levels, USDA said.
South African bio-diesel plant could boost soy trade
The bio-diesel plant now under consideration by South African petrochemicals group Sasol and the Central Energy Fund (CEF), could almost triple soybean demand in South Africa.
Sasol and the CEF said that the proposed bio-diesel plant would require more than 500,000 tonnes of soybeans to produce 100,000 tonnes of bio-diesel per annum.
At present, South Africa consumed about 275,000 tonnes of soybeans per annum and in the 2005/06 season; South African farmers harvested 272,500 tonnes.
However, Sasol spokesperson Johann van Rheede said that it was "very early days" for the project
Conab expects 58.1-million-tonne crop; drought cuts Brazilian soymeal exports
Brazil's National Commodities Supply Corporation (Conab), estimates their 2005-06 soybean crop to be 58.1 million tonnes. Conab's latest estimate is on the same level as the December estimate despite some crop losses in the south-west of Parana state. Conab is part of Brazil's Agriculture Ministry.
"With good crop production in Paraguay and Argentina, coupled with the second-biggest harvest in US history, we should have excessive soy supply, with an increase in global soy stocks," Conab said in its report, adding that 2005/06 would be tight on margins because Brazilian and international soy prices are likely to fall.
In a related news, drought prevented Brazil from producing a record soybean crop last year and also stopped it from setting a new soymeal export record. Brazil exported 14.42 million tonnes of soymeal during 2005, which was just shy of the all-time high of 14.49 million tonnes set the previous year. In 2005, Brazil saw a fall in sales to the Netherlands, while Germany and France took similar amounts as in 2004.
Brazil harvested 51.1 million tonnes of soybeans in 2004/05 but had expected closer to 60 million tonnes. Poor weather destroyed over half of the soybean crop in the state of Rio Grande do Sul and a third of the crop in Parana.
|
US & South America Soybean/Products Balance | |||||||||
|
United States |
Argentina |
Brazil | |||||||
|
Actual |
Estimate |
Proj. |
Actual |
Estimate |
Proj. |
Actual |
Estimate |
Proj. | |
|
2003/04 |
2004/05 |
2005/06 |
2003/04 |
2004/05 |
2005/06 |
2003/04 |
2004/05 |
2005/06 | |
|
Soybeans |
thousand tonnes | ||||||||
|
Carryin |
4,853 |
3,059 |
6,954 |
1,630 |
2,046 |
2,181 |
3,231 |
2,453 |
715 |
|
Production |
66,778 |
85,013 |
82,820 |
33,000 |
39,000 |
40,500 |
50,500 |
51,000 |
58,500 |
|
Imports |
151 |
152 |
109 |
540 |
530 |
485 |
364 |
400 |
425 |
|
Crush |
41,631 |
46,160 |
46,811 |
25,072 |
27,800 |
29,100 |
29,172 |
28,175 |
29,675 |
|
Exports |
23,946 |
30,011 |
27,759 |
6,500 |
9,800 |
10,000 |
19,571 |
22,180 |
25,750 |
|
Other |
3,146 |
5,099 |
4,297 |
1,552 |
1,795 |
1,810 |
2,899 |
2,783 |
3,000 |
|
Usage |
68,723 |
81,270 |
78,867 |
33,124 |
39,395 |
40,910 |
51,642 |
53,138 |
58,425 |
|
Carryout |
3,059 |
6,954 |
11,016 |
2,046 |
2,181 |
2,256 |
2,453 |
715 |
1,215 |
|
Soymeal |
thousand tonnes | ||||||||
|
Carryin |
200 |
191 |
155 |
347 |
354 |
560 |
763 |
532 |
200 |
|
Production |
32,953 |
36,938 |
37,116 |
19,807 |
21,806 |
22,900 |
22,920 |
22,200 |
23,395 |
|
Domestic use |
28,590 |
30,448 |
31,116 |
700 |
850 |
950 |
8,784 |
8,850 |
9,250 |
|
Net Exports |
4,372 |
6,526 |
5,928 |
19,100 |
20,750 |
22,050 |
14,367 |
13,682 |
14,050 |
|
Usage |
32,962 |
36,974 |
37,044 |
19,800 |
21,600 |
23,000 |
23,151 |
22,532 |
23,300 |
|
Carryout |
191 |
155 |
227 |
354 |
560 |
460 |
532 |
200 |
295 |
|
Soybean oil |
thousand tonnes | ||||||||
|
Carryin |
676 |
488 |
771 |
99 |
74 |
100 |
150 |
93 |
95 |
|
Production |
7,748 |
8,781 |
9,011 |
4,513 |
5,115 |
5,354 |
5,258 |
5,120 |
5,371 |
|
Domestic use |
7,651 |
7,910 |
8,142 |
140 |
145 |
155 |
2,710 |
2,848 |
2,870 |
|
Net exports |
285 |
588 |
583 |
4,398 |
4,944 |
5,224 |
2,605 |
2,270 |
2,516 |
|
Usage |
7,936 |
8,498 |
8,725 |
4,538 |
5,089 |
5,379 |
5,315 |
5,118 |
5,386 |
|
Carryout |
488 |
771 |
1,057 |
74 |
100 |
75 |
93 |
95 |
80 |
|
USDA Export Sales (tmt) - Week of 02 February 2006 | ||||||||
|
New |
Accum. |
|
New |
Accum. | ||||
|
Country |
Commodity |
Sales |
Exports |
|
Country |
Commodity |
Sales |
Exports |
|
Canada |
Soybeans |
10 |
141 |
|
Hong Kong |
Soymeal |
0.3 |
8 |
|
China |
Soybeans |
251.4 |
6129.6 |
|
Indonesia |
Soymeal |
0.3 |
13.4 |
|
Colombia |
Soybeans |
0.4 |
76 |
|
Jamaica |
Soymeal |
6.6 |
36.2 |
|
Costa Rica |
Soybeans |
0.5 |
107.8 |
|
Japan |
Soymeal |
0.5 |
159.2 |
|
Egypt |
Soybeans |
8 |
393.2 |
|
Mexico |
Soymeal |
41.7 |
487.7 |
|
Guatemala |
Soybeans |
0.2 |
7.2 |
|
OPAC Is. |
Soymeal |
0.7 |
4 |
|
Indonesia |
Soybeans |
43 |
500.2 |
|
Salvador |
Soymeal |
8 |
50.7 |
|
Japan |
Soybeans |
5 |
1318.3 |
|
Surinam |
Soymeal |
1.3 |
2.5 |
|
Malaysia |
Soybeans |
41.4 |
119.7 |
|
Trinidad |
Soymeal |
3.8 |
13.8 |
|
Mexico |
Soybeans |
101 |
1530.8 |
|
Canada |
Soyoil |
0.2 |
10.5 |
|
Netherlands |
Soybeans |
67.7 |
709.5 |
|
Indonesia |
Soyoil |
0.1 |
0.2 |
|
Philippines |
Soybeans |
1.6 |
46.8 |
|
Mexico |
Soyoil |
0.1 |
56.9 |
|
Syria |
Soybeans |
35.6 |
77 |
|
Salvador |
Soyoil |
0.1 |
0.5 |
|
Taiwan |
Soybeans |
57.1 |
780.3 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Ukraine |
Soybeans |
0.7 |
0.3 |
|
Export Sales Totals (tmt) | |||
|
Venezuela |
Soybeans |
5 |
40 |
|
Outstanding |
Accum. |
New | |
|
Canada |
Soymeal |
2.9 |
395.3 |
|
Commodity |
Sales |
Exports |
Sales |
|
Colombia |
Soymeal |
9 |
132.1 |
|
Soybeans |
4,247.00 |
13,957.40 |
518.2 |
|
Cuba |
Soymeal |
2.5 |
44 |
|
Soymeal |
1,365.70 |
2,220.30 |
133.3 |
|
Dom. Rep. |
Soymeal |
19.3 |
122.3 |
|
Soyoil |
89.9 |
110.7 |
0.5 |
