February 12, 2013

 

 

Due to a projected 25-million bushel increase in feed and residual use, US wheat carryover on June 1, 2013, was projected at 691 million bushels, down 25 million bushels, or 3%, from 716 million bushels as the January projection.

 

"Feed and residual use is projected 25 million bushels higher as weaker cash prices relative to corn support opportunities for increased wheat use in livestock and poultry rations," the USDA said in its World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE).

 

The USDA 2013 wheat carryover was below the average expected by the trade that was near 728 million bushels. Wheat futures prices traded higher in Chicago, Kansas City and Minneapolis immediately after the report but later turned mixed. Except for the increase in feed and residual use and the corresponding decrease in ending stocks, USDA numbers for "all wheat" were unchanged from the January WASDE.

 

US all wheat production was estimated at 2,269 million bushels in 2012, unchanged from January and up 270 million bushels, or 14%, from 1,999 million bushels in 2012. Imports were unchanged from January at 130 million bushels but up 18 million bushels from 2011-12. Total wheat supply was projected at 3,142 million bushels for 2012-13, unchanged from January but up 168 million bushels, or 6%, from 2,974 million bushels in 2011-12.

 

Feed and residual use was projected at 375 million bushels, up 25 million bushels from January and up 211 million bushels, or 129%, from 164 million bushels in 2011-12. Seed use was projected at 75 million bushels, unchanged from January but down one million bushels from 2011-12.

 

The USDA projected domestic food use of US wheat in 2012-13 at 950 million bushels, unchanged from January but up nine million bushels, or 1%, from 941 million bushels in 2011-12. Total domestic use was projected at 1,400 million bushels, up 25 million bushels from January and up 218 million bushels, or 18%, from 1,182 million bushels in 2011-12. Exports of US wheat for 2012-13 were projected at 1,050 million bushels, unchanged from January and also equal to the estimated 2011-12 outgo.

 

Total use of wheat in 2012-13 was projected at 2,450 million bushels, up 25 million bushels from 2,425 million bushels in January and up 219 million bushels, or 10%, from 2,231 million bushels last year. The average price of wheat was projected to range from US$7.70-8.10 a bushel in 2012-13, compared with US$7.65-8.15 projected for the year in January.

 

The USDA projected June 1, 2013, carryover of hard winter wheat at 304 million bushels, up 15 million bushels from January but down 13 million bushels from 317 million bushels in 2012. Soft red winter wheat carryover was projected at 133 million bushels, down 35 million bushels from January and down 52 million bushels from 185 million bushels in 2012.

 

Hard spring wheat carryover was projected at 175 million bushels, up five million bushels from January and up 24 million bushels from 151 million bushels in 2012. White wheat carryover was projected at 42 million bushels, down 10 million bushels from January and down 22 million bushels from 2012. Durum carryover on June 1, 2013, was projected at 37 million bushels, unchanged from January but up 12 million bushels from 25 million bushels in 2012.

 

US corn carryover on September 1, 2013, was projected at 632 million bushels, up 30 million bushels, or 5%, from 602 million bushels in January but down 357 million bushels, or 36%, from 989 million bushels in 2012, the USDA said. The USDA 2013 corn carryover number was above the average of trade expectations of 615 million bushels. Corn futures traded slightly lower after the 11:00 a.m. Central Time release of the USDA data. Projected corn supply numbers for 2012-13 were unchanged from January. US corn production in 2012 was estimated at 10,780 million bushels, unchanged from January but down 13% from 12,360 million bushels in 2011.

 

US corn imports in 2012-13 were projected at 100 million bushels, unchanged from January but up 71 million bushels from 29 million bushels in 2011-12. Total supply for 2012-13 was projected at 11,869 million bushels, unchanged from January but down 1,647 million bushels, or 12%, from 13,516 million bushels in 2011-12. Projected feed and residual use in 2012-13 was projected at 4,450 million bushels, unchanged from January but down 98 million bushels, or 2%, from 4,548 million bushels in 2011-12.

 

Food, seed and industrial use was projected at 5,887 million bushels, up 20 million bushels from January (including corn for ethanol unchanged at 4,500 million bushels and food and seed use up 20 million bushels at 1,387 million bushels), but down 550 million bushels, or 9%, from 6,437 million bushels in 2011-12 (which included 5,011 million bushels for ethanol and 1,426 million bushels for food and seed).

 

"Corn use for ethanol production is unchanged, but corn use for sweeteners and starch is raised 20 million bushels, boosting projected food, seed and industrial use," the USDA said. US corn exports in 2012-13 were projected at 900 million bushels, down 50 million bushels, or 5%, from 950 million bushels in January and down 643 million bushels, or 42%, from 1,543 million bushels in 2011-12.

 

Total use of corn in 2012-13 was projected at 11,237 million bushels, down 30 million bushels from the January forecast and down 1,290 million bushels, or 10%, from 12,527 million bushels in 2011-12. The average farm price of corn was projected to range from US$6.75-7.65 a bushel in 2012-13, compared with US$6.80-8.00 projected in January.

 

Carryover of US soy on September 1, 2013, was projected at 125 million bushels, down 10 million bushels from 135 million bushels in January and down 44 million bushels, or 26%, from 169 million bushels in 2012. The USDA 2013 soy carryover was below the average trade expectation that was near 129 million bushels. Soy futures prices were lower after the report. US soy production in 2012 was estimated at 3,015 million bushels, unchanged from January but down 79 million bushels, or 3%, from 3,094 million bushels in 2011.

 

Soy imports in 2012-13 were unchanged from January at 20 million bushels, up four million bushels from 2011-12. Total soy supply in 2012-13 was projected at 3,204 million bushels, unchanged from January but down 121 million bushels, or 4%, from 3,325 million bushels in 2011-12. Projected 2012-13 US soy crush was forecast at 1,615 million bushels, up 10 million bushels from 1,605 million bushels in January but still down 88 million bushels, or 5%, from 1,703 million bushels crushed in 2011-12.

 

Exports were projected at 1,345 million bushels, unchanged from January but down 17 million bushels, or 1%, from 1,362 million bushels in 2011-12. Total use was projected at 3,080 million bushels, up 10 million bushels from 3,070 million bushels in January but down 75 million bushels, or 2%, from 3,155 million bushels as the estimated use in 2011-12. The average price paid to farmers for soy in 2012-13 was projected to range from US$13.55-15.05 a bushel, up US$0.05 from US$13.50-15.00 a bushel projected in January.