February 11, 2013

Aided by rains which have also boosted corn production prospects, yields from Brazil's early soy harvest are "as good as last year", with those further east expected to prove "significantly better".

USDA staff said a field trip to Mato Grosso, which produced nearly 30% of the Brazilian soy harvest last year, and Bahia had revealed "very good" crop condition. Bahia, while only responsible for some 5% of Brazilian output, was described as a "key swing state".

"Harvesting of the early soy varieties has started in Mato Grosso, and soy yields are reported by contacts in the region to be as good as last year," the USDA said, seeing the rains delaying harvesting as beneficial for later-maturing crops.

"In Bahia contacts are expecting soy yields to be significantly better compared to the drought induced lower yields of last year."

The comments came as the USDA raised by one million tonnes, to a record 83.5 million tonnes, its forecast for Brazilian soy output in 2012-13, and by 1.5 million tonnes to 72.5 million tonnes its estimate for the corn harvest.

"Yield prospects for Brazil's first season corn have improved due to good grain-fill conditions in the key states of Paraná and Goiás," the USDA said.

While the rain delays to the soy harvest in Mato Grosso is having some impact in slowing plantings of the follow-on safrinha corn crop, "farmers are able to harvest the soy and plant the safrinha corn".

The comments contrast with a more downbeat assessment of crops in Argentina, whose corn and soy crops the USDA both downgraded by one million tonnes. In soy, "a lack of moisture in some areas and the limited and widely dispersed rains, seen within the last 15 days have caused concern for the crop," the USDA said.

In corn, "some of the Argentine crop now at grain-fill stage has base leaves turning yellow due to both moisture-deficit and to corn mite infestation, resulting in potential yield loss.

"Farmers have been battling armyworms and stem borers as well as blight and smut in areas that earlier had excess moisture but now have low surface moisture."