CBOT soy futures in sharp downtrend

March soy futures on the CBOT are presently in a steep five-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart.

The market has shed around US$1.50 a bushel from the early January high of US$10.74 3/4 a bushel.

Last week saw March soy drop to a fresh four-month low of US$9, which is now strong technical support. A close below US$9 in March soy would produce more serious chart damage and would immediately open the door to a challenge of support at the October 2009 low of US$8.88 1/4.

The soy bears presently have the solid near-term technical advantage. It would take a close in March futures prices above technical resistance at US$9.50 a bushel to provide the bulls with some fresh upside near-term technical momentum to begin to suggest a near-term market bottom is in place.

It does appear the seasonal "February break" phenomenon has a strong grip on the grain futures market, at present. There are no significant technical clues yet to suggest the price downtrend in soy futures will soon come to an end.