February 11, 2008
 

Canada may see increased rapeseed exports to China after snowstorms

Canadian analysts are speculating on the effects of China's latest snowstorm on rapeseed demand in the country.

Canada is China's chief supplier of rapeseed as demand from the country skyrocketed in recent years. Exports in 2004 were below 300,000 tonnes, but last year, it reached about 833,000 tonnes, according to figures from Chinese Customs.

Chris Beckman, Oilseeds Analyst with Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada pegged 2007/08 rapeseed exports to China at 900,000 tonnes but he noted the figure pre-dated the extreme weather in China.

"China grows winter rapeseed and it's been under snow so they won't know until spring what impact the storms have had," he explained.

He also noted that China is also buying huge amounts of soy, soyoil, and palm oil and they could substitute these for rapeseed oil.

He noted that price is not likely to be the main factor in Chinese considerations because prices for both rapeseed and soy are currently very high. "It will be more about availability and accessibility of the product."

China rapeseed production in 2006/07 reached 12.7 million tonnes and 13 million tonnes in 2005/06.

Beckman said the current crop could reach 11 million tonnes as any production increase expected will be negated due to the recent weather.

Canada's total rapeseed exports for 2007/08 were expected to fall 3.2 percent to 5.3 million tonnes, according to Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada.