February 11, 2008

 

US lowers soy stockpile forecast by 15 million bushels

 

 

The USDA has lowered its forecast for the soy ending stocks in the 2007-2008 marketing year by 15 million bushels, with the carryout at just 160 million bushels, on strong exports and a larger crush.

 

The forecast spells a steep drop from the 2006-07 estimate of 574 million bushels, the USDA said Friday in its monthly supply and demand report. January's forecast has been 175 million bushels.

 

The USDA said that the new prediction would put the carryout figure at the lowest it has been since the 2003-04 marketing year.

 

Soy exports are raised 10 million bushels to 1.005 billion bushels, reflecting stronger-than-expected shipments and sales through January.

 

Soy crush is raised 5 million bushels to 1.835 billion bushels, reflecting good crush margins and an increase in projected soymeal exports.

 

The new February forecast for 2007-08 soymeal exports, USDA said, is 8.7 million short tonnes, up from the January prediction of 8.4 million tonnes.

 

Similarly, the forecast for soy oil exports is up at 1.95 billion pounds, up from 1.65 billion pounds.

 

US soy oil export projection was raised on strong sales, especially to China and North Africa.

 

On Friday, the department raised its forecast for overall Chinese soy oil imports to 3 million tonnes, up from the January prediction of 2.8 million tonnes.

 

Furthermore, the USDA forecast 3.4 billion pounds of soyoil to be used for biodiesel in 2007/08, down 400 million from its January estimate.

 

The US soy stockpile was a record 574 million bushels last September 1 at the start of this marketing year.

 

Soy futures prices surged on the Chicago Board of Trade with March selling at US$13.61 a bushel, up 29-1/2 cents, in early trading.