February 11, 2008
ASA weekly: US soy oil exports at an impressive pace
Commitments of 97,800 tonnes made during the week ended January 24 were the largest weekly sales in over a decade.
Some analysts boosted 2007-08 soyoil export projections to roughly 1.04 million tonnes, the highest total since the 2001-02 marketing year when exports totaled 1.14 million tonnes.
Majority of the increase in projected exports for the current marketing year has been allocated to China and northern Africa. Furthermore, soyoil exports, according to analysts, could even be larger since export commitments are well ahead of the 2001-02 paces.
However, the shipping pace needs to pick up considerably with outstanding sales currently at 297,000 tonnes compared to 197,000 tonnes during the 2001-02 marketing year.
Meanwhile, soymeal export sales recorded a marketing year high of 365,800 tonnes in the week ending February 1. The sales were 62 percent above the previous week and 160 percent above the prior 4-week average.
USDA projects tighter stocks in 2007-08
The USDA released its February world and US commodity supply, demand, trade, and price updates on February 8.
Changes in 2007-08 season estimates reflect ongoing world crop and trade trends, with no new survey input for US crops and stocks.
The department reduced its 2007-08 carryout by 408,000 tonnes to 4.35 million tonnes on reductions in the crush and exports. The ending stocks reduction was a bit more than the market expected, but USDA likely will have to boost its exports and, perhaps, its crush forecasts given large outstanding export sales for soy and products.
On the product side, USDA put the additional 2007-08 soymeal production in soybean meal exports.
For soy oil, USDA cut 2007-08 soy oil usage in methyl ester (dominantly biodiesel) by 181,000 tonnes and boosted soy oil exports by 136,000 tonnes, resulting in higher soy oil ending stocks of 1.13 million tonnes.
USDA held Brazil's soy crop at 60.5 million tonnes and Argentina's at 47 million tonnes.
Perdue Agribusiness contracts for low linolenic soy from pioneer hi-bred
Perdue AgriBusiness announced that it would contract low linolenic soybeans from DuPont business Pioneer Hi-Bred for the 2008 growing season to support the marketplace demand for healthier foods, according to a report from the Public Ledger.
John Ade, Perdue vice president of grain sales and merchandising, said the company is excited about the opportunity low linolenic soy offers to both soy growers on the Eastern Shore and the food company customers who are seeking to lower the trans fat content of their products.
Ade said that adding value to growers' crops and offering solutions to customers is good news for agriculture.
Contracts for these opportunities will be made with growers on the Eastern Shore of Maryland and Delaware and in southern Pennsylvania. Perdue will pay a US$0.60 per bushel premium for soybeans stored on-farm and delivered after harvest.
Russ Sanders, Pioneer's marketing director, said this is great news for growers seeking greater income through premiums and the food processors that seek to market healthier foods.
Soy complex mostly up on strong exports
The soy complex closed mostly higher on February 7 reflecting strong export sales. The funds returned to buy soy and soymeal as concerns faded that the federal government would reduce the Renewable Fuel Standard.
March bean futures closed up US$4.78, finishing at US$489.24; May gained US$4.23, closing at US$496.22; and July was up US$3.86, ending at US$500.54.
March soymeal increased US$10.91 closing at US$398.70; May was US$8.49 higher, finishing at US$404.21; and July meal closed up US$8.82 ending at US$408.40.
March soy oil decreased US$0.88 to finish at US$1215.18; May was down US$2.20, closing at US$1231.05; and July was US$0.88 higher, closing at US$1244.72.
|
U.S. & South America Soybean/Products Balance | |||||||||
|
|
United States |
Argentina |
Brazil | ||||||
|
Actual |
Estimate |
Proj. |
Actual |
Estimate |
Proj. |
Actual |
Estimate |
Proj. | |
|
2005/06 |
2006/07 |
2007/08 |
2005/06 |
2006/07 |
2007/08 |
2005/06 |
2006/07 |
2007/08 | |
|
Soybeans |
thousand tonnes | ||||||||
|
Carryin |
6,960 |
12,229 |
15,589 |
174 |
334 |
2,264 |
1,638 |
2,252 |
2,578 |
|
Production |
83,368 |
86,770 |
70,605 |
40,500 |
47,200 |
47,000 |
57,000 |
59,000 |
62,000 |
|
Imports |
92 |
246 |
163 |
1,013 |
2,100 |
2,200 |
40 |
60 |
100 |
|
Crush |
47,324 |
49,160 |
49,805 |
32,748 |
35,600 |
38,750 |
28,756 |
30,500 |
29,400 |
|
Exports |
25,579 |
30,428 |
27,080 |
7,130 |
10,250 |
10,500 |
24,770 |
25,300 |
30,400 |
|
Other |
5,288 |
4,068 |
4,447 |
1,475 |
1,520 |
1,620 |
2,900 |
2,934 |
2,950 |
|
Usage |
78,191 |
83,656 |
81,332 |
41,353 |
47,370 |
50,870 |
56,426 |
58,734 |
62,750 |
|
Carryout |
12,229 |
15,589 |
5,025 |
334 |
2,264 |
594 |
2,252 |
2,578 |
1,928 |
|
Soymeal |
thousand tonnes | ||||||||
|
Carryin |
156 |
285 |
318 |
1,686 |
1,996 |
1,696 |
640 |
794 |
766 |
|
Production |
37,416 |
39,033 |
39,448 |
25,582 |
27,718 |
30,425 |
22,300 |
23,637 |
22,755 |
|
Domestic use |
30,114 |
31,171 |
32,024 |
574 |
618 |
645 |
10,073 |
11,000 |
11,220 |
|
Net Exports |
7,173 |
7,829 |
7,470 |
24,698 |
27,400 |
29,764 |
12,073 |
12,665 |
11,620 |
|
Usage |
37,287 |
39,000 |
39,494 |
25,272 |
28,018 |
30,409 |
22,146 |
23,665 |
22,840 |
|
Carryout |
285 |
318 |
272 |
1,996 |
1,696 |
1,712 |
794 |
766 |
681 |
|
Soybean oil |
thousand tonnes | ||||||||
|
Carryin |
771 |
1,366 |
1,317 |
385 |
487 |
520 |
248 |
300 |
286 |
|
Production |
9,248 |
9,292 |
9,421 |
6,169 |
6,810 |
7,400 |
5,521 |
5,850 |
5,641 |
|
Domestic use |
8,146 |
8,502 |
9,026 |
402 |
600 |
985 |
3,172 |
3,455 |
3,540 |
|
Net exports |
507 |
839 |
731 |
5,665 |
6,177 |
6,435 |
2,297 |
2,409 |
2,167 |
|
Usage |
8,653 |
9,341 |
9,757 |
6,067 |
6,777 |
7,420 |
5,469 |
5,864 |
5,707 |
|
Carryout |
1,366 |
1,317 |
981 |
487 |
520 |
500 |
300 |
286 |
220 |
|
USDA Export Sales (tmt) - Week of 31 January 2008 | ||||||||
|
Country |
Commodity |
New Sales |
Accum. Exports |
|
Country |
Commodity |
New Sales |
Accum. Exports |
|
|
Soybeans |
2.50 |
9.60 |
|
|
Soymeal |
1.50 |
24.20 |
|
|
Soybeans |
1.30 |
179.80 |
|
|
Soymeal |
60.50 |
399.10 |
|
|
Soybeans |
4.40 |
97.00 |
|
|
Soymeal |
6.30 |
76.10 |
|
|
Soybeans |
503.70 |
7541.40 |
|
|
Soymeal |
1.00 |
0.00 |
|
|
Soybeans |
4.60 |
107.00 |
|
|
Soymeal |
1.10 |
255.90 |
|
|
Soybeans |
49.00 |
49.00 |
|
|
Soymeal |
25.00 |
0.00 |
|
|
Soybeans |
15.00 |
406.30 |
|
|
Soymeal |
8.10 |
54.80 |
|
|
Soybeans |
30.10 |
468.20 |
|
|
Soymeal |
5.50 |
5.50 |
|
|
Soybeans |
58.60 |
1280.70 |
|
|
Soymeal |
3.00 |
1.80 |
|
|
Soybeans |
3.80 |
30.20 |
|
|
Soymeal |
8.10 |
24.60 |
|
|
Soybeans |
148.70 |
1499.60 |
|
|
Soymeal |
737.00 |
103.60 |
|
|
Soybeans |
25.70 |
190.10 |
|
|
Soymeal |
0.90 |
28.10 |
|
|
Soybeans |
63.30 |
771.30 |
|
|
Soyoil |
0.80 |
11.30 |
|
|
Soybeans |
65.80 |
270.20 |
|
|
Soyoil |
3.40 |
15.00 |
|
|
Soybeans |
41.90 |
795.60 |
|
|
Soyoil |
3.70 |
7.20 |
|
|
Soybeans |
10.00 |
211.70 |
|
|
Soyoil |
0.60 |
0.60 |
|
|
Soymeal |
25.10 |
464.00 |
|
|
Soyoil |
4.00 |
3.00 |
|
|
Soymeal |
15.50 |
117.10 |
|
|
Soyoil |
17.60 |
61.70 |
|
|
Soymeal |
3.30 |
13.70 |
|
|
Soyoil |
1.00 |
16.30 |
|
|
Soymeal |
42.50 |
0.00 |
|
|
Soyoil |
2.80 |
4.80 |
|
Dom. Rep. |
Soymeal |
6.50 |
175.40 |
|
|
Soyoil |
6.50 |
6.00 |
|
|
Soymeal |
13.40 |
33.40 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Soymeal |
32.00 |
0.00 |
|
Export Sales Totals (tmt) | |||
|
|
Soymeal |
28.40 |
92.60 |
|
Commodity |
Outstanding Sales |
Accum. Exports |
New Sales |
|
|
Soymeal |
3.20 |
45.30 |
|
Soybeans |
7,985.70 |
16,115.10 |
1,037.00 |
|
|
Soymeal |
8.10 |
101.20 |
|
Soymeal |
1,986.70 |
2,550.80 |
365.80 |
|
Korea, Rep. |
Soymeal |
1.00 |
48.30 |
|
Soyoil |
335.10 |
308.70 |
40.70 |
