February 11, 2006

 

CBOT Soy Review on Friday: Ends lower on consolidation setback

 

 

Chicago Board of Trade soybean and soy product futures closed lower Friday on modest fund sales in a consolidation after Thursday's speculative-led rally, brokers say.

 

CBOT March soybeans ended down 5 1/2 cents at US$5.82 1/4 a bushel, below its 10-, 50- and 100-day moving averages.

 

CBOT March soymeal ended down US$1.10 at US$180.50 a tonne, and March soyoil closed down 38 points at 22.27 cents a pound.

 

Rolling of nearby CBOT March soybean contracts was featured on the fourth day of the Goldman roll, the five days when index positions are rolled to deferred months ahead of the CBOT March delivery cycle.

 

In soybean pit trades, funds were light net sellers while commercials were light net buyers of March, brokers said. The Refco division of Man Financial sold 300 March, Calyon Financial sold 200 March and Fimat Futures bought 200 March, they said.

 

In spread trade, Iowa Grain spread 700 May/March and Goldenberg Hehmeyer spread 500 March/May, brokers said.

 

In soybean options trade, UBS sold 1,000 March US$5.80 call options, they noted.

 

CBOT South American soybean futures ended mixed Friday. The CBOT March futures settled up 3 cents at US$6.25 per bushel while May closed down 1 cent at US$6.16.

 

The U.S. Department of Agriculture in its "Oilseeds: World Markets and Trade" report posted Friday on the Foreign Agricultural Service Web site noted Brazil had overtaken the U.S. as the largest global soy exporter, CBOT brokers noted.

 

USDA on Thursday lowered the U.S. 2005-06 soybean export forecast by 1.1 million metric tonnes to 24.8 million tonnes, down 5.2 million tonnes from 2004/05. The decline in U.S. exports combined with an increase in Brazilian soybean exports to 26.1 million tonnes causes the U.S. not to be the top exporter of soybeans for the first time in history, the USDA said.

 

CBOT traders also noted South American weather forecasts called for mostly dry conditions next week across southern Brazil and the main Argentine grain growing region.

 

Brazil's National Commodities Supply Corp., or Conab, will revise part of its 2005-06 soy crop estimate because dry weather in certain parts of Parana state have led to considerable crop reductions, sources said.

 

Conab will collect data March 5-11 and will issue a revised estimate March 20.

 

 

SOY PRODUCTS

 

CBOT soymeal futures ended lower Friday on speculative sales, with the nearby five contracts down 90 cents to US$2.30 per tonne.

 

In soymeal trades, both speculative funds and commercials were net sellers, brokers noted. Bunge Grain and ADM each sold March while R.J. O'Brien sold 300 March, Merrill Lynch sold 200 March and Tenco Inc. sold 200 May, they said.

 

In spread trade, Fimat spread 300 March/May, they noted.

 

CBOT March oil share ended at 38.15%, and the March crush was at 59 3/4 cents.

 

Soyoil futures closed lower Friday as fund sales offset commercial buying, brokers said. The nearby five CBOT soyoil contracts closed Friday down 0.38 to 0.41 cent per pound.

 

In Friday's soyoil trades, Man Financial sold 1,200 March while Bunge Grain bought 200 March and 100 May, brokers said. Fimat bought 400 March while Iowa Grain and Calyon Financial each spread 1,000 May/March, they said.

 

The National Oilseed Processors Association (NOPA) was expected to report Tuesday that its members' January soybean crush totaled 143.5 million bushels, up 1.255 million bushels from the previous report, according to a survey of industry analysts.

 

NOPA said on Jan. 17 that its members' soybean crush during December totaled 142.245 million bushels, down 2.688 million bushels from the previous month.

 

NOPA soyoil stocks in January were expected to rise to 2 billion pounds from the 1.829 billion reported for December.

 

Estimates ranged from 1.930 billion pounds to 2.069 billion pounds.