February 11, 2004

Brazil 2003/04 Soybean Crop Forecast To Break New Record

Brazil's 2003/04 soybean crop is currently estimated at a record 61.0 million tons, up 1.0 million from last month and up 8.5 million or 16% from last year's bumper harvest. The rainfall pattern during the soybean crop's vegetative and reproductive growth periods (November through January) has been nearly ideal in virtually all primary growing regions.

Soil moisture levels have been adequate to excellent for the entire post- planting season throughout Brazil, enabling the crop to grow without significant periods of stress. With the approach of the main harvest period from mid-February to late-March, the Brazilian soybean crop has the potential to achieve record yields in most states. The exception is Rio Grande do Sul, where a month of dry weather likely has taken a slight toll on the crop during its sensitive reproductive growth phase. The crop in Rio Grande still has very good potential, but yields are currently forecast slightly below last year's record.

Nationwide, soybean growers are reportedly having success in keeping Asian rust under control this year, though outbreaks have been widely documented, the press release said. Effective control of rust and other late season diseases through foliar applications of fungicides will assist in boosting overall crop yields this year.

The USDA is currently forecasting 2003/04 national soybean yields at a record 2.9 tons per hectare, up roughly 2% from last year's record level. Soil moisture reserves are adequate in nearly all regions to carry the bulk of the crop to maturity. Excessive rains during February could impede harvest progress and downgrade grain quality, but rainfall would have to reach extreme levels to negatively impact current crop yield potential.

Source: USDA