February 11, 2004

Brazil 2003/04 Corn Production Seen Up

The U.S. Department of Agriculture has estimate the 2003/04 Brazilian corn production at 42.0 million tons, up 2.0 million or 5% from last month but down 7% from last year's record crop.

Harvested area is estimated at 12.9 million hectares, up 0.4 million or 3% from last month and unchanged from last year, according to a press release on the USDA's Foreign Agricultural Service web site.

Crop yield is estimated well above average at 3.26 tons per hectare, but down 8% from last year's record level. Summer corn area for 2002/03 is roughly the same as last year, despite strong relative returns compared to soybeans.

According to government statistics, corn area declined in the major southern growing states of Parana and Rio Grande do Sul, but increased in Center-West and Northeast states, the press release said. Summer corn yield potential is generally excellent in most producing areas in Brazil, following timely and substantial rainfall over the bulk of the growing season. Subsoil moisture is sufficient in most areas to support the crop through maturation.

Winter corn plantings are forecast mostly unchanged from last year, which is a break from the long-term trend of steady annual growth. Winter acreage is expected to stagnate near last year's levels owing to a bumper summer harvest and record carryover stocks of corn from 2002/03. Winter crop area is estimated 1 percent higher than last year and production down 16 percent. Winter corn yields reached unprecedented levels last year owing to a lack of frost or drought, and are currently forecast to return to well-above-average levels in 2003/04.

Source: USDA