February 10, 2011

 

Brazil to be aware of possible delay in soy sowings

 

 

Brazilian farmers should not disregard the risks of delays from a late soy sowing season, even if the wet weather have put them on track for a record harvest of the oilseed, according to the USDA.

 

The USDA lifted by one million tonnes to an all-time high of 68.5 million tonnes its forecast for Brazil's soy production in 2010-11, after rainfall boosted a crop whose sowings were delayed by up to three weeks by dry weather last year.

 

"The weather situation across Brazil has eased earlier concerns about dryness," the USDA said.

 

Brazil's improved prospects contrast with those of neighbouring Argentina, where rains last month arrived too late to prevent crop damage.

 

"About 40% of the early-planted soy was flowering during the drought conditions in December and early January, which will likely reduce potential yield," the department said, cutting its forecast for Argentina's soy crop by one million tonnes.

 

The corn crop was downgraded by 1.5 million tonnes.

 

However, Brazilian farmers could still suffer a delayed hangover from the late soy sowings if so-called "safrinha" crops, largely cotton and corn, which are planted immediately the oilseed's harvest encounter adverse weather.

 

"Both safrinha cotton and corn in the central-west region are slightly behind with regard to their planting window because of the late start to soy planting in September," USDA analyst William Baker said.

 

"Due to the late planting of the safrinha cotton crop, yield will be especially dependent on the amount of rainfall received during the remainder of the summer."

 

Currently, Brazil appears on course for total cotton output of 8.2 million bales, although the country is becoming increasingly reliant on the safrinha crop, which can account for 40-45% of output of the fibre on some farms.
 

The USDA made the comments as it released the February edition of its influential Wasde report, which made only minor changes to soy estimates - outside South America - nor to cotton forecasts.