February 10, 2010

USDA cuts Argentine soy export estimates by 20%

The USDA cut its forecast for Argentine soy exports by 20% from its previous projection amid rising domestic needs and increased competition from record-large US and Brazilian crops, analysts said.

A larger Argentine soy crush, partly due to better demand for soyoil for biodiesel fuel production, will help absorb some of that supply, but Argentina's 2009-10 marketing year ending stocks were forecast to grow.

Argentina is the world's third largest soy exporter behind the US and Brazil and the world's top exporter of soymeal and soyoil.

In a monthly report released on Tuesday (Feb 9), USDA cut its Argentine soy export outlook to 7.85 million tonnes, down 2 million tonnes from its January forecast, but up from 5.59 million tonnes the previous year when drought slashed production.

Meanwhile, USDA raised its US soy export forecast to a record 38.1 million tonnes and increased its Brazilian export view to 25.3 million tonnes. It also raised its forecast for soy imports by China, the world's top buyer, by 500,000 tonnes.

Hamburg-based oilseeds analysts Oil World said on Tuesday that increased domestic biodiesel use would trim Argentina's soyoil sales in 2010.