Brazilian bumper soy harvest dries out

 

 

Dry weather over the past week has favored the harvest of Brazil's record soy crop, but more widespread rains are due over the weekend and early next week, Somar predicted Friday (Feb 5).

 

The main soy producing states have been getting above-average rainfall since planting started in September, which has allowed producers to plant and bring a greater portion of the crop to early maturity.

 

In January, rainfall was above average in nearly all the main soy states. Parts of No. 3 soy state Rio Grande do Sul got 190% of the average moisture that normally falls in the month, and analysts see a bumper crop due to the rain.

 

The No. 4 soy state of Goias was the only major producer that was short of its average moisture for the month, coming in 47% below average.

 

But Somar said widespread rain is due to return to the main soy belt over the next five days. Between February 5 and 9, more than 30mm (1.2 inches) is seen falling on a good part of Rio Grande do Sul, Mato Grosso, Goias, northern Mato Grosso do Sul, Maranhao, Piaui and western Bahia.

 

Somar added that No. 2 soy state Parana and the southern parts of No. 5 soy state Mato Grosso do Sul would see only half the volume of rains expected in the other growing states.

 

In its extended 10-day forecast, Somar said rains should begin to break up again over Goias and western Bahia, as well as in the smaller but fast growing northeastern states.

 

Harvest in No. 1 soy state Mato Grosso will begin to pick up speed in February and March. Producers planted a large portion of the soy crop early due to good rains, which translates into an earlier harvest than normal.

 

Brazil is expected to produce a record soy crop of roughly 64-65 million tonnes this year.

 

The ample moisture over the grain belt has increased outbreaks of diseases such as Asian soy rust but the wet weather is expected to favor the crop more than hurt it, with the bulk of harvest still at least a month or two off.