February 7, 2008

 

Soy seed shortage threatens planned US acreage expansion

 

 

A shortage of high-quality soy seed may threaten planned expansion of US soy acreage this season.

 

With oilseed and grains prices at historic highs, farmers in most growing regions will be trying to determine which crop to plant to get the maximum return on their investment. A lack of seed could play a significant role in those decisions.

 

"There are some major shortages of quality soy seed developing, especially for later-maturing varieties popular in the South," said Doane Agricultural Services. "That's where we expect much of the 'acreage recovery' in soy for 2008 and now we're being told by some pretty knowledgeable folks that farmer complaints of seed shortages are real and significant; enough to threaten assumptions about soy recovering at least half the acreage lost to corn last spring."

 

Louisiana State University extension soy and feed grain specialist David Lanclos said "the shortage of soy seed is caused by escalating commodity prices on the world market and the poor seed-growing conditions where seed beans are produced."

 

With market prices for soy at historic highs and skyrocketing nitrogen fertilizer prices causing a huge increase in the cost of producing corn -- the primary alternative crop for most growers -- anecdotal reports suggest that demand for soy seed has risen dramatically this year, exacerbating the supply shortfall.

 

Weather aberrations have stunted soy output in major planting states. In 2007, much of the Southeast, Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic region sweltered through a serious drought. The poor weather conditions devastated overall production of late-maturing soy varieties and yielded stunted, low-moisture soy seed far more susceptible to splitting and other damage from mechanical handling.

 

Late season drought was preceded by spring flooding that washed out early planted seed fields across Kansas, making supplies of some mid-maturity soy particularly tight.

 

"We knew that the 2007 increase of corn acres in the United States would increase interest in soy for 2008, but were not prepared for an extremely poor germ (seed germination) and (seed) vigor year," said Lanclos.

 

 

Tests conducted by seed companies and state seed boards have reportedly uncovered average soy seed germination rates of about 60 to 80 percent -- with some as low as 10 percent -- compared to normal rates of 80 to 90 percent. Poor seed germination results in reduced field stands and low plant populations, a primary contributor to lower yields.

 

Although the core of the US soy belt received fairly normal growing weather in 2007, a wet harvest season followed, which delayed harvest and also allowed many seed fields to be attacked by mold and fungus.

 

The soy seed shortage has made it particularly difficult for private analysts to estimate the 2008 spring crop-mix, as many US farmers may still be undecided about their planting plans, even at this late date.

 

Lanclos said if soy seed were not in short supply, Louisiana producers would like to plant well over 1 million acres this year. That would be up sharply from the 590,000 acres the state seeded in 2007, said Lanclos. "However, because of the seed shortages, that number will more than likely not be realized," he said.

 

Jeremy Ross, soy specialist with the University of Arkansas Cooperative Extension Service, said securing seed supplies could develop into a "free-for-all," as farmers scramble to get the seed varieties they need.

 

"I've heard that farmers that have already booked seed are being cut, and they're not going to get exactly what they thought they were going to get, just because the seed is not there," Ross said. "Many seed companies have had to go back and re-allocate a lot of their soy seed supplies, and so right now we're looking at a shortage of seed for the 2008 planning window."

 

He suggests that farmers immediately contact their seed supplier, if they have not already done so.

 

"More than likely, you're not going to be able to get all the seed that you really want, or have had in the past," he said. "Producers may have to look at some more alternatives."

 

No matter how many soy acres are ultimately planted, it's likely all that soy seed will be planted a bit later than normal -- and at heavier seeding rates --as growers attempt to offset lower germination rates, avoid poor stands and the prospect of replanting.

 

Ross said, because of this situation, farmers need to ensure they get a viable crop the first time they plant. If they have to replant, he warned, it's possible they won't be able to find any hybrids adapted to their area. Soy planting normally begins in late March across southern-most sections of the US

 

Final production estimates issued in January by USDA said US farmers planted 63.6 million acres of soy in 2007, ultimately harvesting 2.585 billion bushels from 62.8 million acres of land, at average yields of 41.2 bushels per acre.