February 7, 2007

EU to have favourable prospects

Europe's poultry and pig meat sector could exhibit relatively favourable medium-term perspectives, while beef production is expected to decline with a widening of the trade deficit as a consequence of the CAP reform and strong competition from the world market, according to the latest EC "Prospects for EU-25 agricultural markets and income" report. The report covers period from 2006-13.

Total per capita meat consumption is projected to increase by 2.2  percent altogether by the end of the forecast period.

Overall meat consumption is projected to increase from the estimated 85.3 kg/head in 2005 to around 86.8 kg/head by 2013.

While EU-27 would continue to be a net exporter of pork meat, increasing competition from low-cost producing countries would turn it into a net importer at the end of the forecast period, said the report.

The medium-term farm income projections display a favourable outlook as the EU-27 agricultural income would grow by 23.2 percent between 2005-13 in real terms and per labour unit (9.3 percent in the EU-15, 37.1 percent in the EU-10 and 105.1 percent in EU-2).

The report added that even though the overall outlook for EU agricultural markets and income over the next seven years appears relatively favourable, it remains subject to some important uncertainties.

The latter relate to the outcome of the Doha round of trade negotiations and to the risks linked to animal disease such as avian influenza, which could have far-reaching implications for the future pattern of EU agricultural markets, said the report.