February 7, 2006

 

Brazil's 2005/06 soy estimates at 58.1 million tonnes

 

 

The National Commodities Supply Corp (Conab), said in its third estimate for Brazil's 2005/06 soy harvest released Monday that the crop would amount to 58.1 million tonnes.

 

In its second estimate for the harvest in December, Conab said the crop would range between 57.3 million and 58.5 million tonnes. Conab's latest estimate is still within the range of its December estimate despite some crop losses in the south-west of Parana state.

 

Conab is part of Brazil's Agriculture Ministry.

 

Conab interviewed roughly 1,100 farmers, soy-grower cooperatives and public and private institutions in Brazil's main soy-producing states.

 

"With good crop production in Paraguay and Argentina, coupled with the second-biggest harvest in US history, we should have excessive soy supply, with an increase in global soy stocks," Conab said in its report, adding that the 2005/06 season would be tight on margins because Brazilian and international soy prices are likely to fall.

 

Falling prices, a weak US dollar and a big Brazilian crop will come as no surprise to the local soy industry.

 

"There's nothing expressive in this report," said Seneri Paludo, a soy market analyst at agri-business consulting firm AgRural. "If the weather doesn't do us in in February, this is going to be a good crop."

 

Analysts and agronomists interviewed by Dow Jones Newswires over the past several weeks have said that good weather would be a boon for Brazil's 2005/06 crop, but warned that February was a crucial month weather wise, because rainfall was needed to develop the soybeans.

 

Brazil harvested 51.1 million tonnes of soybeans in 2004/05 but had expected closer to 60 million tonnes. The crop was lower because poor weather destroyed over half of the soy crop in the state of Rio Grande do Sul and a third of the soy crop in Parana.

 

Most states will start harvesting 2005/06 soy next month.

 

The following is a list of production estimates by region, including the top three producer states. Total estimates are in millions of tonnes. Production is in kilogrammes per hectare.

 

           Production per hectare      Total Crop

            2004/05  2005/06    2004/05   2005/06

 

North         2,692    2,613        1.4     1.3

North-east    2,741    2,523        3.9     3.7

Center-West  2,634    2,835       28.6    29.0

South-east    2,488    2,631       4.7     4.5

South        1,490    2,386        12.8    19.6

 

Mato Grosso  2,900    3,020       17.7    17.5

Parana        2,300    2,660        9.5    10.5

R.G. do Sul    641      2,100       2.6     8.2