February 6, 2012

 

Canada's rapeseed stocks stiff, wheat slightly up

 

 

On December 31, Canada's supplies of rapeseed were slightly tighter than a year earlier, but all-wheat supplies grew modestly, Statistics Canada said on Friday (Feb 4).

 

The calendar-year-end stocks report is an indicator of how accurate Statscan's final production estimates were for the most recent harvest, along with how robust demand was late in the year. However it generally gets less attention from the trade than planting or production reports.

 

Figures for the three most actively traded Canadian crops on futures markets -- wheat, rapeseed and oats -- fell within the range of expectations.

 

"It's amazing how everything is very close to year-ago levels," said Ken Ball, futures and options broker at Union Securities in Winnipeg.

 

The trade was most interested in rapeseed levels, with both domestic crushing and exports running ahead of last year's pace, but cold, harsh weather in Europe and dryness in South America are more significant market influences right now, Ball said.

 

"It would have to be startling to have an impact and I would expect (the report) to fade into the background fairly quickly."

 

ICE March rapeseed futures initially pared their gains after the report before extending them in later trading. Rapeseed stocks totalled 9.29 million tonnes, down 1.5% from 9.43 million tonnes a year earlier.

 

All-wheat stocks edged up 0.6% to 20.96 million tonnes from 20.83 million tonnes. Oat supplies amounted to 2.03 million tonnes, down 14.5% from last year.

 

Traders surveyed by Reuters expected, on average, rapeseed stocks of 9.1 million tonnes, all-wheat supplies of 20.6 million tonnes and 2.2 million tonnes of oats.

 

The decline in oat stocks came after floods caused farmers to plant fewer acres last year, said analyst Randy Strychar of Oatinsight.com.

 

Canada is the world's biggest rapeseed, spring wheat and oat exporter. Statscan surveyed 10,560 farmers from January 3-10 and also tapped into data on commercial storage for its stocks report. Statscan will give its first forecast of plantings on April 24.