February 6, 2006

 

ASA Weekly: Brazil says domestic production could be 83.9 million tonnes in 2014; US president calls for investment in bio-based fuel technology

 

 

Brazil says domestic production could be 83.9 million tonnes in 2014

 

Brazil's Agriculture Ministry released a study last week that estimates the country will produce 83.9 million tonnes of soybeans in 2014. The Ministry expects advances in crop technology and farmland expansion to lead to higher soy production. The Ministry also bases its 2014 expansion on growth in livestock feed demand for hogs and poultry.

 

Elisio Contini, head of strategic planning at the Agriculture Ministry, said domestic consumption would be 51 million tonnes annually beginning in 2014, with exports doubling to 31.7 million tonnes by that time, 54.6 percent more than Brazil exported in 2005.

 

US president calls for investment in bio-based fuel technology

 

US president George W Bush warned the US must break its "addiction" to oil, in his State of the Union address given on Feb 1. He said the US was too reliant on oil, often from "unstable" countries, and had to find alternatives. However, the Bush administration's proposed budget for fiscal 2007 does not fully support his call.

 

Bush said the nation has "a serious problem" with its dependence on imported oil. "The best way to break this addiction is through technology," he said, pledging to seek a 22-percent increase in funding for clean energy research, including nuclear and renewable energy sources such as biofuels. He said he was aiming for a 75-percent cut in US oil imports from the Middle East by 2025.

 

The President's initiatives are open to criticism as press reports indicate that his administration has not fully authorised funding mandated by legislation he signed last year.

 

Budget details released last week showed that recommended spending by the Bush administration on major parts of the plan--which includes promoting research on biofuels, solar and wind power, clean coal technology and nuclear energy--is below levels authorised in the Energy Act of 2005 signed in August.

 

For example, the White House said it will recommend spending US$150 million in fiscal 2007 on research aimed at making biofuels more competitive with oil--US$59 million more than the current appropriation but about US$50 million less than the energy bill authorises.

 

Abiove expects Brazil to have 57.1-million-tonne crop in 2006/07

 

The Brazilian Vegetable Oils Industry Association (Abiove) said last week that the 2006/07 soybean crop could reach 57.1 million tonnes. Soymeal production is likely to be 22.9 million tonnes while soyoil output is seen 5.6 million tonnes next year, Abiove said.

 

Abiove's soybean export estimate for 2006/07 is 24.5 million tonnes; up from 2005/06 when Brazil exported 22.4 million tonnes. Soymeal export estimates could be 13.4 million tonnes in 2006/07, which would be slightly lower than the 13.9 million tonnes of soymeal exported in the 2005/06 marketing year. Soyoil exports for 2006-07 are estimated by Abiove to be 2.45 million tonnes.

 

Abiove's expects Brazil to crush 29.7 million tonnes of soybeans in 2006/07, up from 28.9 million tonnes crushed in 2005/06.

  

Early Asian rust discoveries in US concerns USDA

 

Asian soybean rust may have successfully over wintered in the South this season, according to the latest report from USDA.

 

Twelve counties across three states in the South (Georgia, Alabama and Florida) have reported rust, just one month into 2006. "Scouting efforts are under way in all states of the Deep South and in Texas," said USDA.

 

The first detection of soybean rust in Georgia during 2005 did not come until April. Rust has also been found in one county of Alabama, fully five months sooner than was the case in 2005. Florida has also reported 10 rust-positive counties.

 

Kudzu, the common broadleaf weed found throughout the south-eastern US, is a primary alternative host of soybean rust. USDA suggests that the extent to which killing frosts cause "kudzu dieback" each winter could become a key factor in determining the annual dispersal of the disease among the US soybean crop.

 

U.S. & South America Soybean/Products Balance
	United States			Argentina			Brazil
	Actual	Estimate	Proj.	Actual	Estimate	Proj.	Actual	Estimate	Proj.
	2003/04	2004/05	2005/06	2003/04	2004/05	2005/06	2003/04	2004/05	2005/06
Soybeans	thousand tonnes
Carryin	4,853	3,059	6,954	1,630	2,046	2,181	3,231	2,453	715
Production	66,778	85,013	82,820	33,000	39,000	40,500	50,500	51,000	58,500
Imports	151	152	109	540	530	485	364	400	425
Crush	41,631	46,160	46,811	25,072	27,800	29,100	29,172	28,175	29,675
Exports	23,946	30,011	27,759	6,500	9,800	10,000	19,571	22,180	25,750
Other	3,146	5,099	4,297	1,552	1,795	1,810	2,899	2,783	3,000
Usage	68,723	81,270	78,867	33,124	39,395	40,910	51,642	53,138	58,425
Carryout	3,059	6,954	11,016	2,046	2,181	2,256	2,453	715	1,215
Soymeal	thousand tonnes
Carryin	200	191	155	347	354	560	763	532	200
Production	32,953	36,938	37,116	19,807	21,806	22,900	22,920	22,200	23,395
Domestic use	28,590	30,448	31,116	700	850	950	8,784	8,850	9,250
Net Exports	4,372	6,526	5,928	19,100	20,750	22,050	14,367	13,682	14,050
Usage	32,962	36,974	37,044	19,800	21,600	23,000	23,151	22,532	23,300
Carryout	191	155	227	354	560	460	532	200	295
Soybean oil	thousand tonnes
Carryin	676	488	771	99	74	100	150	93	95
Production	7,748	8,781	9,011	4,513	5,115	5,354	5,258	5,120	5,371
Domestic use	7,651	7,910	8,142	140	145	155	2,710	2,848	2,870
Net exports	285	588	583	4,398	4,944	5,224	2,605	2,270	2,516
Usage	7,936	8,498	8,725	4,538	5,089	5,379	5,315	5,118	5,386
Carryout	488	771	1,057	74	100	75	93	95	80

 

USDA Export Sales (tmt) - Week of 26 January 2006
Country	Commodity	New Sales	Accum. Exports		Country	Commodity	New Sales	Accum. Exports
Barbados	Soybeans	0.60	5.40		Guatemala	Soymeal	6.10	86.70
Belgium	Soybeans	3.00	162.00		Hong Kong	Soymeal	1.70	7.60
Canada	Soybeans	3.30	5.40		Indonesia	Soymeal	0.10	151.60
China	Soybeans	70.80	5715.20		Jamaica	Soymeal	1.40	36.20
Colombia	Soybeans	4.50	72.00		Japan	Soymeal	0.10	151.60
Costa Rica	Soybeans	12.10	107.80		LW WW I	Soymeal	0.30	0.60
Guatemala	Soybeans	8.50	5.00		Mexico	Soymeal	50.90	427.80
Indonesia	Soybeans	1.90	495.40		Nicaragua	Soymeal	2.70	22.30
Japan	Soybeans	73.90	1286.80		Philippines	Soymeal	0.20	174.00
Korea, Rep.	Soybeans	0.80	305.60		Turkey	Soymeal	23.00	63.20
Mexico	Soybeans	95.70	1484.70		Canada	Soyoil	6.10	56.80
Morocco	Soybeans	20.00	146.10		Hong Kong	Soyoil	0.10	0.60
Netherlands	Soybeans	63.80	641.80		Israel	Soyoil	0.10	0.10
Philippines	Soybeans	2.00	45.00		Korea, Rep.	Soyoil	14.00	0.10
Syria	Soybeans	16.90	41.40		Kuwait	Soyoil	0.30	1.00
Taiwan	Soybeans	135.40	770.30
Turkey	Soybeans	6.40	284.10		Export Sales Totals (tmt)
UK	Soybeans	1.20	46.20		Commodity	Outstanding Sales	Accum. Exports	New Sales
Canada	Soymeal	14.00	371.70		Soybeans	4,402.60	13,283.60	446.60
Colombia	Soymeal	9.20	122.10		Soymeal	1,425.90	2,016.80	197.90
Dom. Rep.	Soymeal	38.20	103.50		Soyoil	90.70	109.40	20.90