February 5, 2014

Forecast for the 2014 EU rapeseed harvest was raised slightly to 21.4 million tonnes this year by analyst Strategie Grains, citing good weather conditions in the 28-country bloc.

On a global level, the analyst forecast a drop of one million tonnes in rapeseed output in the 2014-15 campaign to 67 million tonnes, with the sharpest drop in Canada after a record crop this season. In soy, the analyst pegged the 2014-15 global crop to gain 11 million tonnes from the 287 million tonnes harvested in 2013-14. This would include a five million tonnes rise in the US soy crop due to a 5% rise in the area sown to the detriment of corn, whose prices slumped this season. Global oilseed supply should grow despite higher demand, Strategie Grains said.

For the current 2013-14 season, the analyst raised its forecast of rapeseed imports in the EU by 300,000 tonnes, at 3.3 million tonnes. Taking into account a 200,000-tonne upward revision to demand, reflecting good crush margins, the analyst raised its estimate of EU rapeseed stocks at the end of the season by 100,000 tonnes, at 1.5 million tonnes.

The analyst said that Canadian logistical difficulties continue to dominate the rapeseed market, with very low exports in the first part of the campaign, which benefits exports from Australia, whose loadings are currently very high.