February 5, 2008

 

ASA weekly: US soymeal consumption sees continuous growth
 

Soymeal domestic disappearance, up from last year by 4 percent, reflects strong growth into the 2007 October-November-December (OND) quarter.

 

This is amidst the December crush at 70,800 tonnes coming in below expectations and soymeal stocks coming in above expectations.

 

The Census Bureau revised lower the November crush by 27,200 tonnes to 4.24 million tonnes, which is more in line with the NOPA reports. Though December's crush of 4.42 million tonnes was record large for that month by 136,000 tonnes, the December crush was unusually low compared with the NOPA crush, analysts said.

 

Soymeal domestic disappearance was up from the previous year by nearly 4 percent during October to December, following a 6-percent gain on July to September  and 5 percent during April to June.

 

The rally in soymeal futures of more than US$100 from April to June to the end of 2008 has done little to slow the growth in US soymeal demand.

 

Supportive of soymeal use was the protein consuming animal units which were up more than 2 percent from the previous year during JAS and OND.

 

The Census Bureau has been reporting an unusually high soymeal yield thus far in the 2007-08 marketing year, averaging 47.8 pounds per bushel.

 

While soymeal domestic offtake continues to be strong, per capita domestic disappearance of soy and vegetable oils in general has been declining when biodiesel's consumption of oil is excluded.

 

Traditional uses of soy oil have declined since they peaked during 2004-05 as food manufacturers are reformulating away from partially hydrogenated soy oil to palm and rapeseed oil to reduce trans-fat content below 0.5 grammes per serving.

 

Per capita non-biodiesel domestic usage of all vegetable oils has also declined for 5 consecutive quarters.

 

US reiterates disapproval on EU ban over GM crops

 

The US last week reiterated its right to go against the EU's ban on biotech crops.

 

The dispute has so far pitted the EU against countries including the US, Argentina and Canada.

 

The World Trade Organization (WTO) has previously ordered the EU to lift the ban. However, Brussels found it difficult to implement the WTO ruling because some of its 27 EU member states operate their own bans.

 

The WTO announced it would hold a meeting on February 8 to discuss a US request for compensation in the dispute. The item probably would be withdrawn from the agenda following a likely EU objection as part of an agreement between Washington and Brussels to pursue a negotiated solution. But if they do not succeed, the issue will return to the dispute settlement body's agenda.

 

The extended deadline for Brussels to comply expired on January 11. The following week, the US gave EU more time to do so.

 

Washington reserved its right to push later for a WTO decision on whether the EU had done enough to end the ban and, if Brussels was found wanting, to retaliate.

 

A document that the US filed recently at the WTO state that the country reserved the right to retaliate against the EU to compensate for the annual value of lost US exports, royalties and licensing fees to the EU from biotech crops.

 

These would be levied by imposing extra tariffs on EU goods or lifting other WTO agreements regulating agriculture or health and safety, the document said.

 

Soy complex mixed on low exports and oil prices

 

The soy complex closed mixed on January 24 reflecting low soy export sales and lower petroleum prices as new-crop soy futures posted double-digit gains.

 

Analysts said the 2008-09 situation looks to be even tighter on expected good South American crops and the reluctance of corn to free up the bulk of acres it took from soy in 2007.

 

South American soy production prospects are seen promising with Argentina's weather improving in recent weeks.

 

But excessive moisture in Brazil's Center West region also threaten early maturing soythat are ready to harvest and could make Asian soy rust more prevalent and more difficult to control.

 

March bean futures closed down US$0.46, finishing at US$468.29; May lost US$0.55, closing at US$479.91; and July was up US$0.09, ending at US$480.42.

 

U.S. & South America Soybean/Products Balance
	United States			Argentina			Brazil
	Actual	Estimate	Proj.	Actual	Estimate	Proj.	Actual	Estimate	Proj.
	2005/06	2006/07	2007/08	2005/06	2006/07	2007/08	2005/06	2006/07	2007/08
Soybeans	thousand tonnes
Carryin	6,960	12,229	15,589	174	334	2,264	1,638	2,252	2,578
Production	83,368	86,770	70,605	40,500	47,200	47,000	57,000	59,000	62,000
Imports	92	246	163	1,013	2,100	2,200	40	60	100
Crush	47,324	49,160	49,805	32,748	35,600	38,750	28,756	30,500	29,400
Exports	25,579	30,428	27,080	7,130	10,250	10,500	24,770	25,300	30,400
Other	5,288	4,068	4,447	1,475	1,520	1,620	2,900	2,934	2,950
Usage	78,191	83,656	81,332	41,353	47,370	50,870	56,426	58,734	62,750
Carryout	12,229	15,589	5,025	334	2,264	594	2,252	2,578	1,928
Soymeal	thousand tonnes
Carryin	156	285	318	1,686	1,996	1,696	640	794	766
Production	37,416	39,033	39,448	25,582	27,718	30,425	22,300	23,637	22,755
Domestic use	30,114	31,171	32,024	574	618	645	10,073	11,000	11,220
Net Exports	7,173	7,829	7,470	24,698	27,400	29,764	12,073	12,665	11,620
Usage	37,287	39,000	39,494	25,272	28,018	30,409	22,146	23,665	22,840
Carryout	285	318	272	1,996	1,696	1,712	794	766	681
Soybean oil	thousand tonnes
Carryin	771	1,366	1,317	385	487	520	248	300	286
Production	9,248	9,292	9,421	6,169	6,810	7,400	5,521	5,850	5,641
Domestic use	8,146	8,502	9,026	402	600	985	3,172	3,455	3,540
Net exports	507	839	731	5,665	6,177	6,435	2,297	2,409	2,167
Usage	8,653	9,341	9,757	6,067	6,777	7,420	5,469	5,864	5,707
Carryout	1,366	1,317	981	487	520	500	300	286	220

 

USDA Export Sales (tmt) - Week of 24 January 2008
Country	Commodity	New Sales	Accum. Exports		Country	Commodity	New Sales	Accum. Exports
Barbados	Soybeans	2.50	9.60		Nicaragua	Soymeal	2.40	20.00
Belgium	Soybeans	1.30	47.10		Philippines	Soymeal	82.80	254.30
China	Soybeans	149.00	7185.30		Saudi Arabia	Soymeal	24.00	103.00
Costa Rica	Soybeans	17.00	114.00		Thailand	Soymeal	1.00	4.00
Egypt	Soybeans	4.70	375.80		Vietnam	Soymeal	4.00	26.10
Germany	Soybeans	47.10	47.10		Algeria	Soymeal	6.00	36.80
Indonesia	Soybeans	32.00	460.00		Canada	Soyoil	2.40	10.70
Japan	Soybeans	8.00	1183.80		China	Soyoil	30.00	62.00
Mexico	Soybeans	68.60	1399.50		Colombia	Soyoil	4.00	15.00
Peru	Soybeans	28.70	12.90		Dom. Rep.	Soyoil	0.80	3.30
Spain	Soybeans	66.10	279.10		Malaysia	Soyoil	4.00	3.00
Taiwan	Soybeans	30.70	742.80		Mexico	Soyoil	5.70	59.40
Algeria	Soymeal	5.00	9.90		Morocco	Soyoil	10.00	16.30
Canada	Soymeal	18.40	443.50		Tunisia	Soyoil	11.00	15.80
Colombia	Soymeal	10.20	110.60
FW IND	Soymeal	3.20	8.50
Honduras	Soymeal	5.70	46.30		Export Sales Totals (tmt)
Indonesia	Soymeal	6.00	40.90		Commodity	Outstanding Sales	Accum. Exports	New Sales
Ireland	Soymeal	25.00	1.80		Soybeans	7,840.70	15,223.10	488.00
Japan	Soymeal	19.60	90.40		Soymeal	1,793.80	2,377.90	325.80
Mexico	Soymeal	44.10	363.80		Soyoil	297.60	305.50	97.70