February 4, 2014
US soy prices challenged by global events and weather
Brugler Marketing and Management reports that Brazilian producers appear to be active sellers on the rally of old-crop March bean futures, with those cash sales being hedged in Chicago. US export sales commitments are already 104% of the World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) forecast for the year, Brugler says, with 30.2 million tonnes already shipped. The agrimarketing company adds that demand from China is expected to slip the coming week due to the Lunar New Year Holiday.
More negative news comes from Farm Futures, which notes that bird flu could again hurt the flight of soy prices. "The Chinese Centre for Disease Control and Prevention as of January 27 has reported 96 human infection cases of the bird flu virus, H7N9," Farm Futures reports. There are concerns that the demand in China for poultry products could drop over the next few months if the flu spreads. This could also lead to a drop in soymeal demand in China.
"Activities in other parts of the world are important to the 2014 US soy crop," Elliott says. "We don't have a lot of carryover going into the next year. We expect more soy acres in the US, but there's still a question as to how many soy acres will be planted."
